Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T23:16:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AA
0xaa65…9297
crypto · 691 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$411 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$417 · open +$6
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$204
Realized−$417
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses523 / 156
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions12
Markets (closed)679 / 691
History coverage85d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day12.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 12 History 679 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$279
14 days−$367
30 days−$388
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $39 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 13? No 97¢ 100¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 13? No 94¢ 100¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 86°F or higher on June 13? No 98¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 13? No 92¢ 100¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? No 92¢ 100¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 13? No 96¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 13? No 94¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Down 98¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Down 60¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+67%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Up 95¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +42%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $9 +$1 +11%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 13? Jun 13 $19 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $9 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 13? Jun 13 $39 +$1 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $29 +$1 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +5%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on June 13? Jun 13 $19 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 96% −$340
weather 3% −$76
other 1% +$4
sports 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 34m
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $4 37m
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $4 47m
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $4 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $4 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 94¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 94¢ $5 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 5h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 5h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $3 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $3 6h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $5 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $4 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $4 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 6h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $3 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $3 7h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $3 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $3 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 86°F or higher on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $5 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 86°F or higher on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $5 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 523 -3.5% -12.7% 79% 32% -15.8%
≤30d 668 -5.8% -14.8% 78% 25% -11.7%
≤90d 679 -7.0% -15.9% 77% 25% -11.8%
all 679 -7.0% -15.9% 77% 25% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover12.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 25% -11.8%
10% -23.9% 21% -20.3%
15% -31.3% 17% -28.0%
20% -38.0% 13% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $203.68 · official $201.76 (match) · 1898 history records