Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:53:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
AA 0xaa65…8e78 other 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 38d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge
Total PnL +$423 (+13%) realized +$432 · open −$9
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip
Net edge+13%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate49%20W / 21L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$741now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$721
7 days+$721
14 days+$503
30 days+$481
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% +$13
sports 9% +$650
tech 9% −$170
crypto 2% −$29
politics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +65.0% +49.3% 53% 53% +27.7%
≤30d 34 +29.5% +17.2% 47% 38% +8.0%
≤90d 41 +24.7% +12.8% 49% 34% +6.9%
all 41 +24.7% +12.8% 49% 34% +6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.8% 34% +6.9%
10% +2.0% 34% -3.3%
15% -7.9% 32% -12.7%
20% -16.9% 27% -21.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +58% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$66 vs −$40 · ×1.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$741
Realized+$432
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses20 / 21
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions4
Markets (closed)41 / 45
History coverage38d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $300 $297 −$3 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $200 $202 +$2 (+1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 60¢ 58¢ $200 $195 −$5 (-2%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 43¢ 40¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $303 +$158 +52%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $39 −$38 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 22 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $41 −$33 -80%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $31 +$69 +226%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $51 +$121 +237%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $41 +$323 +785%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $399 +$182 +46%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$34 +67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$65 +65%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 19 $63 −$63 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 19 $199 −$199 -100%
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? Jun 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $157 +$43 +27%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $51 −$9 -17%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $68 −$4 -7%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $60 +$111 +185%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $17 +$43 +246%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $44 −$27 -61%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $30 +$14 +46%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $75 −$45 -60%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 +$33 +162%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $146 −$146 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $92 +$105 +114%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.6T by June 30? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by June 30? Jun 13 $113 −$113 -100%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Jun 12 $50 −$5 -10%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 12 $62 −$14 -23%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by June 30? Jun 06 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31? May 29 $21 −$4 -19%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 24 $9 +$1 +8%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 24 $7 $0 +2%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 24 $20 +$2 +8%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $20 $0 -2%
Will Hyperliquid reach $48 in May? May 19 $11 +$10 +97%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? May 18 $10 +$1 +8%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 May 11-17? May 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $20 −$1 -6%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $10 +$1 +8%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $17 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $51 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $461 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 45¢ $39 19h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $304 19h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $10 20h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes $8 21h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 60¢ $202 21h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $203 21h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $303 21h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 22h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 26¢ $31 22h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $172 23h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 25h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $41 44h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $10 44h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $399 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 92¢ $199 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $114 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $43 6d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $43 6d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $63 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $64 6d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $171 6d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $60 6d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $60 6d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $17 6d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 14¢ $17 7d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 34¢ $44 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $741.11 · official $741.11 (match) · 111 history records