Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:32:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AA 0xaa67…0ed7 other 116 markets active 4d ago coverage 642d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$129 (-0%) realized −$129 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate63%72W / 43L
Whale WR8%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$622per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$9
14 days+$35
30 days+$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 61% −$99
other 37% −$248
sports 0% +$132
world 0% +$2
crypto 0% −$15
economics 0% +$9
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +34.4% +21.6% 47% 47% -9.5%
≤30d 33 +24.3% +12.4% 55% 42% -9.5%
≤90d 43 +16.6% +5.5% 53% 44% -9.5%
all 115 +3.9% -6.0% 63% 38% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.0% 38% -9.8%
10% -15.0% 27% -18.4%
15% -23.2% 24% -26.3%
20% -30.7% 23% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 8% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$12 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

642d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized−$129
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses72 / 43
Whale WR (big bets)8%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)115 / 116
History coverage642d
Avg bet$622
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 115 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $70 $70 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $2,267 −$2 -0%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $15 +$18 +119%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 12 $17 +$16 +93%
Libema Open: Magda Linette vs Mia Pohankova Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $11 +$14 +124%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $1,744 −$1 -0%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $13 +$12 +93%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $2,972 −$28 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$3 +31%
Ilkley: Felix Gill vs Filippo Romano Jun 11 $13 +$11 +81%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $583 −$1 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $2,263 −$3 -0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $165 −$2 -1%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $13 +$10 +79%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $6,310 −$28 -0%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers Jun 09 $14 +$10 +73%
Roland Garros ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Gael Monfils Jun 09 $15 +$16 +105%
Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City Royals May 25 $15 +$16 +105%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $5,789 −$15 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $6,306 −$3 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $9,556 −$18 -0%
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels May 23 $10 +$14 +140%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Borna Gojo vs Jurij Rodionov May 22 $13 +$11 +83%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $4,903 −$3 -0%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Jaime Faria vs Lukas Neumayer May 21 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026? May 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET May 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? May 21 $6 $0 +0%
Rome: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Stefanos Sakellaridis May 21 $6 +$4 +62%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? May 21 $10 $0 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? May 21 $14 +$2 +15%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m May 21 $23 $0 +1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m May 21 $24 $0 +0%
Sharks vs. Jets: O/U 4.5 Apr 22 $29 +$6 +19%
Red Wings vs. Penguins Apr 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Jets vs. Blackhawks Apr 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Blue Jackets Apr 16 $10 +$8 +82%
Stars vs. Bruins Apr 16 $9 +$11 +122%
Magic vs. Hawks: O/U 232.5 Mar 31 $12 −$12 -100%
Flames vs. Red Wings Mar 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Kings vs. Rangers Mar 31 $17 −$17 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Miami Marlins Mar 31 $11 +$11 +96%
Grizzlies vs. Bulls: O/U 243.5 Mar 31 $15 +$14 +92%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 16 $69 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate no one before 2027? Mar 16 $5 $0 +0%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs G2 Esports (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season Mar 16 $15 +$26 +170%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Feb 07 $9 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Feb 07 $10 $0 +4%
Grizzlies vs. Magic Feb 07 $10 +$5 +52%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Feb 07 $25 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $70 4d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $1,868 4d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $10 4d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $50 4d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $10 4d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $59 4d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $6 4d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $6 4d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $7 4d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $9 4d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $59 4d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $5 4d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $5 4d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $5 4d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $56 4d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $10 4d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $5 4d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $52 5d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $38 5d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $5 5d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $2,267 5d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 45¢ $15 5d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $731 5d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $6 5d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,007 5d
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu BUY Emma Raducanu 51¢ $17 5d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 51¢ $13 5d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,744 5d
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 85¢ $1,486 6d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 44¢ $11 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.89 · official $69.89 (match) · 444 history records