Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:09:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaa68…3552 crypto 577 markets active 0h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$38 (-2%) realized −$38 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate51%295W / 282L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day20.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$130
14 days−$120
30 days−$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$53
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 141 -21.0% -28.6% 43% 43% -38.4%
≤30d 491 -2.2% -11.5% 52% 52% -12.0%
≤90d 577 -2.5% -11.7% 51% 51% -12.0%
all 577 -2.5% -11.7% 51% 51% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.7% 51% -12.0%
10% ← realistic here -20.2% 51% -20.4%
15% -27.9% 51% -28.1%
20% -35.0% 51% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$38
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses295 / 282
Open positions0
Markets (closed)577 / 577
History coverage34d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day20.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 577 Trades
no open positions (241 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$4 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $3 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1042 history records