Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:06:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AA
0xaa68…7488
world · 8 markets active 1h ago
3.0score
+$0 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$3 · open −$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$16
Realized+$3
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)2 / 8
History coverage2d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 6 History 2 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump say "Make America Great Again" this week? Yes 37¢ 39¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 59¢ 55¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Will Trump say "Oman" this week? Yes 54¢ 38¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-31%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 20¢ 19¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Will Trump say "Four More Years" in June? Yes 69¢ 38¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-46%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? Yes 37¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 10 $15 +$5 +31%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 42% +$5
politics 31% −$2
world 22% −$1
weather 6% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 59¢ $5 1h
Will Trump say "Oman" this week? BUY Yes 54¢ $3 24h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $20 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 2d
Will Trump say "Make America Great Again" this week? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 2d
Will Trump say "Four More Years" in June? BUY Yes 69¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-40.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -34.5% -40.8% 50% 50% +4.9%
≤30d 2 -34.5% -40.8% 50% 50% +4.9%
≤90d 2 -34.5% -40.8% 50% 50% +4.9%
all 2 -34.5% -40.8% 50% 50% +4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.8% 50% +4.9%
10% -46.4% 50% -5.2%
15% -51.6% 0% -14.3%
20% -56.4% 0% -22.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.43 · official $16.43 (match) · 11 history records