Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:32:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaa6c…5294 other 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 446d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+1%) realized +$5 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate38%13W / 21L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% +$4
other 32% −$1
politics 10% $0
economics 10% $0
tech 5% $0
crypto 4% $0
sports 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.4% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 9 +8.0% -2.3% 44% 11% -7.0%
≤90d 9 +8.0% -2.3% 44% 11% -7.0%
all 34 -0.7% -10.1% 38% 3% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 3% -8.9%
10% -18.7% 3% -17.6%
15% -26.6% 3% -25.6%
20% -33.8% 3% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.28 per $1 lost it wins $2.28
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

446d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized+$5
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses13 / 21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage446d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 87¢ 86¢ $45 $45 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 18 $25 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $23 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $45 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $40 +$1 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $17 +$1 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 26 $3 −$1 -26%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $11 $0 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 23 $4 +$4 +91%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 22 $2 $0 -12%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2025 World Series? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -90%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 12 $2 $0 +2%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? May 15 $2 $0 +1%
Will Trump deport 1,500,000-1,750,000 people? Apr 13 $15 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 13 $7 $0 +0%
Will Mariana Mortágua be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the Apr 13 $15 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 275-299 times April 4 - 11? Apr 13 $15 $0 +2%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in his first 100 days? Apr 12 $7 $0 +0%
Will Walmart buy TikTok? Apr 12 $7 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in his first 100 days? Apr 10 $7 $0 -0%
Will Frankfurt win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 09 $7 $0 -0%
Will Bayern Munich win the Bundesliga? Apr 09 $15 $0 -1%
Will Brighton finish in the top 4 of EPL? Apr 08 $15 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 07 $21 $0 +0%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 06 $44 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Apr 05 $23 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40k in April? Apr 04 $23 $0 +0%
Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense in Trump's first 100 Apr 04 $23 $0 +0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 03 $47 $0 -0%
Will Tari Eason win 2024-25 NBA 6th Man of the Year? Apr 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? Mar 31 $23 $0 +0%
Will Lazio win the UEFA Europa League? Mar 31 $10 $0 +0%
March Madness: Will 0 teams seeded #1 make the Final 4? Mar 31 $23 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $45 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $25 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $25 9h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $23 18h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $23 20h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $45 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $45 28h
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 93¢ $41 23d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 91¢ $40 23d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $14 23d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $14 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 23d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $11 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $11 24d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 36¢ $7 25d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 36¢ $7 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes 11¢ $7 26d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes 11¢ $2 26d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes 6¢ $4 26d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 26d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 26d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 26d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 26d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 26d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.30 · official $46.30 (match) · 103 history records