Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:42:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaa6d…fd62 crypto 105 markets active 6d ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate86%87W / 14L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$124now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 26% −$1
other 23% −$1
sports 19% −$1
economics 13% −$1
crypto 12% +$2
culture 7% $0
tech 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +0.3% -9.2% 91% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 18 +0.3% -9.3% 94% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 59 +0.1% -9.5% 97% 0% -9.4%
all 101 +0.2% -9.3% 86% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.2%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$124
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses87 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)101 / 105
History coverage159d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 101 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $24 $24 +$0 (+0%)
Will Solana reach $160 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $23 $23 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-0%)
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $50,000 on June 13? Jun 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $50,000 on June 12? Jun 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 11? Jun 10 $13 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $10 in May? Jun 10 $26 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $86,000 on May 31? Jun 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $86,000 on June 1? Jun 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on May 28? Jun 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $66,000 on May 30? Jun 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 10 $21 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May? Jun 10 $23 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 10 $26 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 18? May 28 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 19? May 28 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 20? May 28 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 28 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? May 18 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 18 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 18 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 11 $15 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $10 in April? May 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in April? May 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? May 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? May 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? May 05 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? May 05 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? May 05 $16 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? May 05 $17 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026? May 05 $19 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on April 7? Apr 14 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $60,000 on April 8? Apr 14 $14 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 7? Apr 14 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 8? Apr 14 $16 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on April 9? Apr 14 $18 $0 +0%
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90%? Apr 07 $11 −$1 -10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on April 2? Apr 07 $11 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on April 1? Apr 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on March 31? Apr 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 31? Apr 07 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 2? Apr 07 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 1? Apr 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $10 in March? Apr 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in March? Apr 07 $15 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 07 $16 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 March 23-29? Mar 31 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on March 29? Mar 31 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 28? Mar 31 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 29? Mar 31 $16 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 30? Mar 31 $18 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on March 22? Mar 28 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 21? Mar 28 $15 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $50,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $13 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $50,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $14 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 99¢ $13 6d
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in June? BUY No 100¢ $16 6d
Will Solana reach $160 in June? BUY No 100¢ $23 6d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $24 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $21 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $86,000 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $13 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $86,000 on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $11 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $66,000 on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $14 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $13 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 20? BUY No 100¢ $13 29d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $12 29d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 29d
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 36d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 36d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 36d
Will Solana dip to $10 in May? SELL No 100¢ $24 36d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 42d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 42d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? BUY No 99¢ $26 42d
Will Solana dip to $10 in May? BUY No 100¢ $26 42d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $23 42d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $21 42d
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 63d
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $19 63d
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $17 63d
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 63d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $16 63d
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in April? BUY No 100¢ $10 70d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $124.22 · official $124.22 (match) · 239 history records