Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:14:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AA
0xaa6d…7619
crypto · 24 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$140 -34%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$141 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$10
Realized−$141
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses12 / 11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)23 / 24
History coverage2d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day19.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 23 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$147
7 days−$141
14 days−$141
30 days−$141
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Up 85¢ 98¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+15%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $96 $0 −$96 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Down 77¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $39 $0 −$39 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Up 72¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $29 −$28 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $14 +$4 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $41 −$39 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $29 +$18 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $19 −$19 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $99 −$96 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $15 +$9 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$2 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$2 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 12 $20 +$6 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$13 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 10 $62 +$7 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$140
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $9 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $29 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $14 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $41 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $17 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $17 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $17 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $9 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 7¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET SELL Down 8¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $10 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-30.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -23.2% -30.5% 52% 48% -41.8%
≤30d 23 -23.2% -30.5% 52% 48% -41.8%
≤90d 23 -23.2% -30.5% 52% 48% -41.8%
all 23 -23.2% -30.5% 52% 48% -41.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover19.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.5% 48% -41.8%
10% -37.1% 35% -47.4%
15% -43.2% 22% -52.5%
20% -48.8% 17% -57.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.12 · official $10.12 (match) · 61 history records