Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:40:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaa6f…1dfe world 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 121d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$6,978 (-17%) realized −$10,800 · open +$3,822
Gross ROI / mkt -43% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%5W / 20L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,551per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$439est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$8,745now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 121d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% +$3,065
world 28% −$4,986
politics 2% −$958
crypto 1% −$435
finance 0% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-48.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -10.2% -18.8% 40% 40% -22.4%
≤30d 14 -49.7% -54.5% 14% 14% -35.6%
≤90d 20 -39.6% -45.3% 20% 20% -27.1%
all 25 -43.3% -48.7% 20% 20% -27.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -48.7% 20% -27.9%
10% -53.6% 16% -34.8%
15% -58.1% 16% -41.1%
20% -62.2% 16% -46.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$1,528) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -37% → late -49% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,475 vs −$976 · ×2.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$8,745
Realized−$10,800
Unrealized+$3,822
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses5 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$439
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 26
History coverage121d
Avg bet$1,551
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 48¢ 86¢ $4,923 $8,745 +$3,822 (+78%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $5,034 −$4,933 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $5,058 −$5,000 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5,085 +$3,078 +60%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 15 $1,553 −$1,528 -98%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $2,975 +$5,604 +188%
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? Jun 11 $46 −$46 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 11 $498 −$498 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $500 −$500 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? May 21 $194 −$17 -9%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? May 21 $1,512 −$1,152 -76%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 21 $1,021 −$400 -39%
Israel closes its airspace by May 24? May 21 $2,560 −$1,607 -63%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 21 $1,485 −$870 -59%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? May 12 $858 −$858 -100%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 12 $104 −$100 -96%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 07 $1,498 −$537 -36%
Israel closes its airspace by May 8? May 05 $996 −$996 -100%
Manchester City FC vs. Southampton FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 25 $2,632 +$2,035 +77%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? Apr 21 $998 +$1,634 +164%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Feb 19 $144 −$142 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 19, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Feb 19 $121 +$23 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Feb 18 $99 −$99 -99%
Fortuna Sittard vs. SBV Excelsior: O/U 2.5 Feb 18 $111 −$12 -11%
XRP Up or Down - February 18, 4AM ET Feb 18 $217 −$217 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $4,999 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $5,034 27h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 61¢ $2,023 47h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 61¢ $1,012 47h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 61¢ $1,012 47h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 61¢ $1,012 47h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 19¢ $1,024 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $4,061 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 52¢ $304 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 48¢ $102 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 46¢ $130 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 44¢ $508 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 43¢ $508 2d
Spread: Germany (-4.5) BUY Germany 34¢ $2,975 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? BUY Yes 15¢ $0 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? BUY Yes 11¢ $274 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? BUY Yes 11¢ $209 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? BUY Yes 15¢ $14 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? BUY Yes 11¢ $9 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 16¢ $15 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? BUY Yes 15¢ $20 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? BUY Yes $500 7d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? SELL Yes 22¢ $177 28d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? SELL No $360 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,744.88 · official $8,729.62 (match) · 159 history records