Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:25:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
AA 0xaa71…e8aa other 138 markets active 2h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$62 (+0%) realized +$62 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate12%17W / 120L
Whale WR4%big bets
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$353per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% −$17
politics 34% −$20
sports 11% +$101
tech 6% −$3
economics 5% −$2
crypto 4% −$1
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 87 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
all 137 +5.2% -4.8% 12% 7% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.8% 7% -9.4%
10% -13.9% 5% -18.1%
15% -22.3% 4% -26.0%
20% -29.9% 4% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 4% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +11% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$1 · ×11.3 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.61 per $1 lost it wins $1.61
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized+$62
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses17 / 120
Whale WR (big bets)4%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)137 / 138
History coverage130d
Avg bet$353
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 137 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 21 $59 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $419 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $31 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $345 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $589 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 27 $609 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 27 $334 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 26 $343 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 24 $345 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $650 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $338 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $256 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $355 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 19 $342 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $356 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $623 −$1 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $606 $0 +0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 15 $349 −$1 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 15 $256 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $642 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $357 −$1 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $269 −$1 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $693 $0 -0%
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 07 $310 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $373 −$1 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 04 $986 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 03 $626 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $280 $0 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $360 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $309 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $317 −$1 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $339 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $257 $0 +0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 22 $742 −$1 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 22 $266 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $267 $0 -0%
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio Apr 21 $289 $0 -0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 21 $364 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $381 $0 +0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $378 $0 -0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 20 $321 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 19 $290 $0 -0%
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 18 $640 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? Apr 18 $616 −$1 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $714 −$1 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $379 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $929 −$1 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $375 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $564 −$1 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 16 $368 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $34 1h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $59 3h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $59 6d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $61 6d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $61 15d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $31 20d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $31 20d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $54 21d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $54 22d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $258 24d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $258 24d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $312 24d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 99¢ $109 25d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 99¢ $199 25d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 99¢ $0 25d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 99¢ $1 25d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 99¢ $2 25d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 99¢ $0 25d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 99¢ $0 25d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 99¢ $1 25d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $334 25d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $334 25d
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $343 25d
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $343 26d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $297 26d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 99¢ $297 27d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL No 100¢ $345 27d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $345 27d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $301 27d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $301 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.98 · official $33.98 (match) · 405 history records