Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T23:15:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AA
0xaa74…78b9
other · 261 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$310 -9%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$294 · open −$17
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$93
Realized−$294
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)2%
Wins / losses4 / 232
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions25
Markets (closed)236 / 261
History coverage690d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%
Chart Positions 25 History 236 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$275
7 days−$275
14 days−$275
30 days−$275
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will FURIA reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 40¢ 34¢ $40 $34 −$6 (-14%)
Will Noah Okafor score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 54¢ 37¢ $11 $7 −$3 (-31%)
Will Deep Fission's market cap be less than $1.25B at market close on IPO day? No 46¢ 32¢ $9 $6 −$3 (-30%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 12? No 46¢ 100¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+117%)
Will Anthony Garotinho win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? Yes 15¢ 7¢ $8 $4 −$4 (-53%)
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? No 68¢ 64¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-6%)
Will SpaceX have exactly 13 launches in June 2026? No 74¢ 77¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Will Azerbaijan join the Abraham Accords before 2027? No 88¢ 88¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will Blagomir Kotsev win the next Bulgarian presidential election? Yes 11¢ 14¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+25%)
Will South Korea be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 49¢ 54¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+9%)
Will Algeria be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? No 63¢ 65¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will Croatia be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Yes 26¢ 23¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-12%)
Will SpaceX have 14+ launches in June 2026? Yes 62¢ 68¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+10%)
Will Austria be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? No 89¢ 90¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will Coldplay perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? No 71¢ 72¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026? No 46¢ 60¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+30%)
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? No 63¢ 53¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-16%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on June 12? Yes 28¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+257%)
Will there be 20+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 6¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-40%)
Will Norway be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Yes 29¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Will Canada be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
City Protocol FDV above $50M one day after launch? No 56¢ 51¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Will Chico Machado win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? No 90¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31? Yes 46¢ 48¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will Canada be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? No 83¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Jun 13 $24 −$1 -5%
Will Granit Xhaka score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $87 −$8 -9%
Will Russia enter Pokrovskoe by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $21 $0 -1%
Will there be 15+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $37 −$4 -11%
Will Casemiro score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $3 $0 -4%
Will Anthropic's market cap be $3.0T or greater at market close on IPO Jun 13 $9 −$2 -20%
Will Virgil van Dijk score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $8 $0 -2%
Will Pervis Estupiñán score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $4 $0 -6%
Will Ivory Coast be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Jun 13 $2 $0 -12%
Will New Zealand be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 13 $28 −$1 -5%
Will New Zealand be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 13 $4 $0 -11%
Will Cameron Boozer be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 13 $10 $0 -2%
Will Nuno Mendes score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $18 −$1 -7%
Will Ghana be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Jun 13 $2 $0 -3%
Will Ghana be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 13 $14 −$1 -5%
Will Senegal be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 13 $1 $0 -6%
Will Hurupay launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $15 −$1 -9%
Will Leandro Trossard score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $5 $0 -3%
Will Morocco be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 13 $10 $0 -2%
Will Austria be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 13 $11 $0 -1%
Will Ecuador be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? Jun 13 $25 −$2 -7%
Will BULK launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 13 $21 −$2 -9%
Will Türkiye be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 13 $3 −$1 -22%
Will Deep Fission's market cap be between $1.25B and $1.5B at market c Jun 13 $1 $0 -6%
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June? Jun 13 $9 −$1 -9%
Will Türkiye be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 13 $14 −$2 -14%
Will Dan Ndoye score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $28 −$1 -5%
Will there be 10+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $36 −$2 -4%
Will Cape Verde be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 13 $40 −$5 -12%
Will Slingshot launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 13 $22 $0 -2%
Will Team Heretics be the last EMEA team standing at Masters London Jun 13 $2 $0 -12%
Will Vitality reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $59 −$2 -3%
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by June 30? Jun 13 $18 $0 -2%
Will Team Vitality win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 13 $79 −$2 -2%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? Jun 13 $120 −$9 -7%
Will Top Esports win LPL 2026 Split 2? Jun 13 $13 −$1 -7%
Will there be fewer than 1 North Korea test in June 2026? Jun 13 $36 −$2 -5%
Will Ismael Díaz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $21 −$2 -10%
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in June? Jun 13 $7 $0 -2%
3Jane FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jun 13 $5 $0 -8%
Will Russia enter Moskovka by July 31? Jun 13 $5 −$1 -15%
Will Uruguay be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? Jun 13 $2 $0 -11%
Will Uruguay be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 13 $17 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $13 $0 +0%
Will Uruguay be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 13 $10 $0 -1%
Will Croatia be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 13 $5 $0 -6%
Will Christian Pulisic score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $12 −$1 -6%
Will Justin Bieber perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime s Jun 13 $26 −$3 -12%
Will Warsh say "FED" during June Press Conference? Jun 13 $3 $0 -5%
Will Pedri score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $2 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 65% −$206
world 8% −$17
weather 7% −$30
finance 6% −$11
sports 6% −$8
tech 4% −$17
politics 3% −$10
crypto 1% −$11
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Blagomir Kotsev win the next Bulgarian presidential election? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 5m
Will Morocco be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 5m
Will Morocco be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 6m
Will Granit Xhaka score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 62¢ $12 13m
Will Canada be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 21m
Will Canada be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 34m
Will Coldplay perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? BUY No 71¢ $2 38m
Will Russia enter Pokrovskoe by December 31, 2026? SELL No 77¢ $15 38m
Will Russia enter Pokrovskoe by December 31, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $15 38m
Will there be 15+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 39m
Will there be 15+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 42m
Will Russia enter Pokrovskoe by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $6 45m
Will Russia enter Pokrovskoe by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $6 46m
Will Granit Xhaka score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 77¢ $15 53m
Will Casemiro score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 37¢ $3 54m
Will Casemiro score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 38¢ $3 55m
Will Anthropic's market cap be $3.0T or greater at market close on IPO SELL Yes 10¢ $7 1h
Will Anthropic's market cap be $3.0T or greater at market close on IPO BUY Yes 10¢ $2 1h
Will there be 20+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 1h
Will Virgil van Dijk score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 42¢ $8 1h
Will Virgil van Dijk score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 42¢ $8 1h
Will Canada be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? SELL No 83¢ $7 1h
Will Canada be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? SELL No 83¢ $8 1h
Will Canada be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY No 83¢ $17 1h
Will Pervis Estupiñán score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 42¢ $4 1h
Will Pervis Estupiñán score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 44¢ $4 1h
Will Ivory Coast be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 1h
Will Ivory Coast be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 1h
Will New Zealand be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? SELL Yes 69¢ $14 1h
Will New Zealand be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $4 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 225 -10.0% -18.6% 1% 1% -17.6%
≤30d 225 -10.0% -18.6% 1% 1% -17.6%
≤90d 225 -10.0% -18.6% 1% 1% -17.6%
all 236 -10.2% -18.7% 2% 1% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.7% 1% -17.8%
10% -26.5% 1% -25.6%
15% -33.6% 1% -32.8%
20% -40.1% 1% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $92.97 · official $92.70 (match) · 793 history records