Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:24:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaa7c…7f87 world 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 477d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-1%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate53%16W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 66% +$4
other 23% +$3
politics 4% −$16
crypto 3% +$1
culture 1% $0
weather 1% $0
tech 1% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 12 +1.2% -8.4% 67% 0% -8.7%
≤90d 12 +1.2% -8.4% 67% 0% -8.7%
all 30 -3.6% -12.8% 53% 7% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 7% -10.7%
10% -21.2% 3% -19.3%
15% -28.8% 3% -27.1%
20% -35.8% 3% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

477d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses16 / 14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage477d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 79¢ 80¢ $42 $42 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $80 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $35 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $42 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $42 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $38 +$1 +2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $57 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 31 $19 +$1 +5%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $39 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $40 +$1 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $36 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 28 $34 +$2 +7%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Dec 10 $1 $0 +4%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 26 $5 $0 +5%
Will Kim Moon-soo win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 202 May 27 $5 $0 +2%
Will Tim Stokely buy TikTok before July? May 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? May 25 $5 $0 -1%
MicroStrategy purchases >14000 BTC May 20-26? May 23 $5 $0 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? May 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 20 $5 $0 -2%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 18 $5 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? May 17 $8 +$1 +14%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? May 16 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? May 16 $5 +$3 +52%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? Apr 23 $5 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2200 in April? Apr 23 $6 $0 -6%
Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government? Mar 25 $7 $0 -1%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 5-10%? Mar 22 $12 −$11 -93%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 55°F or higher on March 4? Mar 03 $7 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $42 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $42 9h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $42 10h
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $24 15d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $18 15d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $41 15d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $35 15d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $35 15d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $42 16d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $42 16d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 16d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 17d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 55¢ $42 17d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 55¢ $42 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $39 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 68¢ $19 18d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 68¢ $19 18d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $15 18d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $4 18d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $19 18d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $3 18d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $10 18d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $21 18d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $4 18d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $36 18d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $2 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 25¢ $12 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $8 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $19 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.13 · official $42.13 (match) · 94 history records