Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T04:31:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaa80…b141 world 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 466d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$28 (+4%) realized +$30 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt +36% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +23% what you keep after slip
Net edge+23%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate39%16W / 25L
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% +$27
other 13% +$1
politics 12% $0
sports 10% $0
crypto 4% −$4
tech 3% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)+22.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 11 +147.8% +124.2% 27% 9% -1.4%
≤90d 11 +147.8% +124.2% 27% 9% -1.4%
all 41 +35.5% +22.6% 39% 5% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +22.6% 5% -6.0%
10% +10.9% 2% -15.0%
15% +0.2% 2% -23.2%
20% -9.7% 2% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 87% · top 2 90% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +36% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +68% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×3.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.83 per $1 lost it wins $3.83
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

466d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized+$30
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses16 / 25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage466d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $65 $63 −$2 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $9 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $26 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $47 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 26 $2 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $43 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 26 $41 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $4 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $63 +$1 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $28 +$1 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $62 −$4 -6%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $2 +$31 +1629%
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? Dec 14 $1 $0 +1%
Will Meta buy TikTok? Jun 26 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin above $105,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Kim Moon-soo win more than 40% of the vote in the South Korea ele Jun 06 $5 $0 +5%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Jun 03 $16 $0 +2%
Will xAI have the top AI model on May 31? Jun 01 $2 $0 +4%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in May? Jun 01 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $17 $0 -2%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 17 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in April? Apr 16 $9 $0 -1%
Trump-Putin-Xi meeting before July? Apr 16 $13 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Roger Stone in his first 100 days? Apr 15 $14 $0 -0%
Will Frankfurt win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 15 $14 $0 -3%
Will Călin Georgescu advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Run Apr 09 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bayern Munich win the Bundesliga? Apr 08 $14 $0 +0%
Will Alexandre Sarr win NBA Rookie of the Year? Apr 07 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Apr 06 $15 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? Apr 05 $1 $0 +12%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Apr 05 $15 $0 -0%
Trump ends taxes on tips in first 100 days? Apr 03 $1 $0 -4%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Apr 03 $15 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon SBF in his first 100 days? Apr 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 02 $16 $0 +2%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 29 $32 $0 +0%
2025 March hottest on record? Mar 28 $16 $0 -0%
Israel military action against Iranian nuclear facility in March? Mar 27 $16 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $15 +$1 +4%
Dogecoin above $0.20 on March 14? Mar 15 $14 +$1 +8%
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday? Mar 12 $14 $0 -0%
Will Feyenoord or Inter Milan advance in the UCL Round of 16? Mar 12 $14 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $46 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $19 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 58¢ $37 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $20 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $16 13h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $9 15h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $9 18h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $8 24h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 24h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 24h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $3 24h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 24h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 24h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $25 24h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 31¢ $47 33h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $47 33h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL Yes $0 23d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL Yes $2 23d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY Yes $2 23d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $2 23d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $40 23d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $43 23d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $36 24d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $5 24d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $41 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL Yes $0 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL Yes $4 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY Yes $4 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 97¢ $23 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 97¢ $41 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.34 · official $67.03 · 118 history records