Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:03:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaa81…99bf politics 83 markets active 0h ago coverage 79d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$312 (+0%) realized +$312 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate8%7W / 76L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$948per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$8
14 days−$14
30 days−$140
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 46% −$51
other 44% +$599
sports 3% −$98
world 3% −$176
tech 2% −$1
economics 2% +$3
finance 1% +$1
crypto 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.0% -9.6% 20% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 33 -6.2% -15.1% 6% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 83 -2.6% -11.9% 8% 5% -9.2%
all 83 -2.6% -11.9% 8% 5% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 5% -9.2%
10% -20.3% 5% -17.9%
15% -28.0% 4% -25.8%
20% -35.1% 4% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 91% · top 2 95% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,318) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$100 vs −$6 · ×18.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.66 per $1 lost it wins $1.66
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$312
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses7 / 76
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)83 / 83
History coverage79d
Avg bet$948
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 83 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $362 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $1,331 −$2 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $2,502 −$4 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $133 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $581 +$3 +1%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $1,261 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $647 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $479 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $545 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 11 $554 −$1 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 07 $532 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $518 −$1 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $350 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $2,070 −$3 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $679 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $2,299 −$4 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 29 $676 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $1,760 −$3 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $719 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $1,548 −$2 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $305 $0 -0%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $523 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $1,207 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $2,359 −$4 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $1,208 −$2 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $1,316 −$2 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 22 $1,014 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 21 $1,317 −$2 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $1,318 −$2 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $1,219 −$2 -0%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Score May 21 $43 −$43 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-7.5) May 21 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $2,793 −$4 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $1,242 −$2 -0%
San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks May 19 $36 +$28 +76%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 12 $1,307 −$2 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $1,538 −$2 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $2,373 −$3 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $1,585 −$2 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $1,469 −$2 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $1,460 −$2 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 06 $1,490 −$2 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $1,528 −$2 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $1,997 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $2,385 −$3 -0%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02? May 05 $909 +$638 +70%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 01 $479 −$1 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? May 01 $488 +$1 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $467 −$1 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $308 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $362 17m
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $362 1h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $484 2h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $484 4h
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $500 6h
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $501 8h
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $641 3d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $642 4d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $646 5d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $647 6d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $478 6d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $479 6d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $544 6d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $545 6d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $553 6d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $554 7d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $531 10d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $532 11d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $517 11d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $518 12d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $619 13d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $620 13d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $349 13d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $350 13d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $603 13d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $604 13d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $678 13d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $679 14d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $733 18d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $734 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 232 history records