Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:40:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
AA 0xaa83…537b sports 1205 markets active 2h ago coverage 248d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,577 (-3%) realized −$1,617 · open +$40
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate50%593W / 600L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$433now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$118
14 days+$94
30 days+$377
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$1,499
sports 36% −$564
crypto 7% +$627
world 0% −$7
culture 0% +$6
politics 0% +$65
economics 0% −$23
finance 0% −$12
tech 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -52.9% -57.4% 33% 33% -60.0%
≤30d 33 -30.2% -36.8% 45% 39% +0.5%
≤90d 92 -18.6% -26.4% 49% 43% +1.9%
all 1193 +1.1% -8.6% 50% 47% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 47% -12.4%
10% -17.3% 44% -20.8%
15% -25.3% 40% -28.5%
20% -32.6% 35% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$23 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

248d coverage
Net worth$433
Realized−$1,617
Unrealized+$40
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses593 / 600
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions11
Markets (closed)1193 / 1205
History coverage248d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 1193 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will GRVT launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 84¢ 78¢ $135 $125 −$10 (-8%)
Will Nansen launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 71¢ 99¢ $55 $77 +$22 (+40%)
Will Tread launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 77¢ 98¢ $45 $57 +$12 (+28%)
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 97¢ $45 $46 +$1 (+2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 19¢ $35 $37 +$3 (+7%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 11¢ $38 $32 −$6 (-15%)
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? No 68¢ 91¢ $20 $27 +$7 (+33%)
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? Yes 74¢ 87¢ $15 $17 +$3 (+18%)
Will Trump say "Gay" in June? No 51¢ 74¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+46%)
Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2027? Yes 88¢ 53¢ $7 $4 −$3 (-39%)
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? Yes 22¢ 12¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-44%)
Will GRVT launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes 59¢ 22¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 488 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 +$6 +55%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 +$5 +50%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 +$2 +16%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $19 +$11 +59%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $6 +$4 +56%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$1 +12%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 AND Will Fran Jun 17 $51 +$198 +387%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $40 +$9 +23%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $24 +$6 +24%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $36 +$14 +40%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Solstice launch a token by December 31 2026? Jun 12 $84 +$4 +5%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $8 +$2 +28%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Ju May 30 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Trump say "Trump Derangement Syndrome" in June? May 30 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET May 29 $5 −$5 -96%
Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch? May 28 $112 +$18 +16%
Citrea FDV above $500M one day after launch? May 28 $627 +$185 +30%
Will Solstice launch a token by June 30 2026? May 26 $2,163 +$100 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 17 $4 +$6 +150%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? May 17 $9 +$11 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET May 10 $12 +$5 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET May 10 $5 +$4 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET May 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET May 10 $3 −$1 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET May 09 $2 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 07 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 07 $10 −$2 -22%
Will Albirex Niigata win on 2026-05-03? May 06 $1 $0 +24%
Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2026-04-11? May 06 $8 +$2 +28%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-04? May 06 $9 +$1 +8%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-08? May 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $7 −$7 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? May 03 $12 −$12 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will GRVT launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $137 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 13h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 13h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $10 13h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $10 13h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $39 35h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 AND Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND France BUY 9¢ $26 37h
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $10 38h
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $10 38h
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $6 40h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 43h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 43h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 43h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 38¢ $4 2d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $5 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $7 2d
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $1 2d
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $19 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 11¢ $0 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 11¢ $1 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $34 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $6 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 87¢ $17 4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 87¢ $7 4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 87¢ $2 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $19 4d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $10 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $432.96 · official $432.82 (match) · 2278 history records