Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:53:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaa84…2b4b sports 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$7 (+0%) realized +$5 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%8W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day31.5pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$289now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$627
other 18% +$217
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-43.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -37.4% -43.3% 40% 40% -38.7%
≤30d 20 -37.4% -43.3% 40% 40% -38.7%
≤90d 20 -37.4% -43.3% 40% 40% -38.7%
all 20 -37.4% -43.3% 40% 40% -38.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -43.3% 40% -38.7%
10% ← realistic here -48.8% 40% -44.5%
15% -53.7% 30% -49.9%
20% -58.3% 25% -54.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 71% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -41% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$62 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$289
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses8 / 12
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions3
Markets (closed)20 / 28
History coverage1d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day31.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 1.5 Over 58¢ 58¢ $106 $107 +$1 (+1%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Yes 59¢ 60¢ $90 $92 +$2 (+3%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Over 59¢ 58¢ $90 $89 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $152 −$150 -99%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $152 −$150 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $152 +$83 +54%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 20 $75 +$59 +79%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $189 −$186 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $152 −$150 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $223 +$155 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $15 +$9 +62%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $29 −$28 -99%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $8 −$8 -99%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $8 +$7 +79%
United States to score first vs. Australia? Jun 19 $9 +$4 +50%
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals Jun 19 $4 −$4 -98%
Julián Quiñones: 1+ goals Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 Jun 19 $27 +$7 +27%
Spread: Canada (-5.5) Jun 19 $27 +$8 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $108 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score AND Netherlands vs. Sweden BUY 56¢ $91 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $91 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $91 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 AND Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to BUY 44¢ $63 4h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $152 4h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $152 4h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $234 4h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $134 4h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 33¢ $189 6h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $75 6h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $152 6h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $152 6h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $378 6h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- BUY 46¢ $68 9h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $203 9h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- BUY 48¢ $5 9h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $20 9h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $25 9h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $12 10h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $8 10h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $8 10h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $15 10h
United States to score first vs. Australia? SELL Yes 100¢ $13 10h
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals BUY Yes 40¢ $4 13h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 AND Will United Sta BUY 52¢ $9 13h
United States to score first vs. Australia? BUY Yes 66¢ $9 13h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $9 13h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $8 13h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $15 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $288.88 · official $387.79 · 44 history records