Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T09:55:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
AA 0xaa86…9124 politics 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate17%3W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$103per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 50% −$2
other 33% $0
sports 6% $0
economics 6% −$1
crypto 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.8% -10.2% 0% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 4 -0.4% -9.8% 25% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 14 -0.2% -9.7% 21% 0% -9.7%
all 18 -0.1% -9.6% 17% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 86% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses3 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage108d
Avg bet$103
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? Jun 25 $100 $0 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $102 −$2 -2%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $102 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $102 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $102 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 18 $102 −$1 -1%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no May 15 $102 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $102 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $102 $0 +0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $104 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Apr 13 $104 $0 +0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 09 $103 $0 +0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 06 $104 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $104 $0 +0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 26 $104 $0 +0%
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 15 $104 $0 +0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Mar 14 $104 $0 +0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 09 $104 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $100 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $100 19h
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $100 5d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $102 6d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $102 16d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $102 17d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $102 26d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $102 27d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $102 35d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $102 36d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $102 38d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $102 38d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no SELL No 99¢ $102 41d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no BUY No 99¢ $102 41d
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $102 44d
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $102 44d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $103 49d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $102 49d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $104 67d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $104 67d
Netanyahu out by April 30? SELL No 99¢ $104 72d
Netanyahu out by April 30? BUY No 99¢ $104 73d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $103 77d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $103 77d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $103 79d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $104 79d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $104 84d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $104 84d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $104 91d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $104 91d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 53 history records