Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:40:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaa87…1ab8 politics 182 markets active 2h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$2,269 (+1%) realized +$2,269 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate21%38W / 144L
Whale WR2%big bets
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$1,284per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$41est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$14
14 days−$46
30 days−$92
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 40% −$112
other 36% +$286
sports 15% +$2,036
economics 4% −$9
culture 2% −$5
world 2% +$1
tech 2% −$3
crypto 1% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.1% -9.6% 11% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 59 -1.6% -11.0% 10% 7% -9.6%
≤90d 121 -4.7% -13.7% 7% 5% -8.8%
all 182 +6.5% -3.6% 21% 10% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.6% 10% -8.7%
10% -12.8% 10% -17.4%
15% -21.3% 9% -25.4%
20% -29.0% 7% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 2% (≥$1,890) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +14% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$83 vs −$7 · ×12.32 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.25 per $1 lost it wins $3.25
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,269
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses38 / 144
Whale WR (big bets)2%
Est. fees paid−$41
Open positions0
Markets (closed)182 / 182
History coverage132d
Avg bet$1,284
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 182 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $891 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $128 $0 +0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $567 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $1,092 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 15 $1,409 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $1,464 −$2 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $1,752 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $735 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $3,453 −$4 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $539 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $505 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $1,422 −$2 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $541 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $1,394 −$2 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 09 $1,378 −$2 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $776 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $615 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $1,230 −$2 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $3,560 −$4 -0%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $2,221 −$2 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $1,470 −$2 -0%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 05 $54 +$43 +79%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $876 −$1 -0%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 03 $74 −$74 -100%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $812 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $2,138 −$3 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $1,743 −$2 -0%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 02 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? Jun 02 $227 +$1 +0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $3,279 −$4 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $353 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $4,813 −$5 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $770 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $768 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $1,671 −$2 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $6,036 −$7 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $1,234 −$2 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $524 −$1 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 30 $386 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $2,833 −$3 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $1,974 −$3 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $360 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $393 −$1 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 27 $394 −$1 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $2,563 −$3 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $1,456 −$2 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $1,463 −$2 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 25 $76 +$61 +79%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $84 +$42 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $302 1h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $302 3h
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $566 21h
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $567 23h
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $727 25h
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $728 27h
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $584 2d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $585 2d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $559 2d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $560 2d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $721 2d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $722 3d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $734 3d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $735 3d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $731 4d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $732 4d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $588 5d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $589 5d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $538 7d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $539 7d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $504 7d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $505 7d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $618 7d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $619 8d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $541 8d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $541 8d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $492 8d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $493 8d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $128 9d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $552 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 634 history records