Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T13:58:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

AA 0xaa88…40d2 other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$3 (+1%) realized −$9 · open +$12

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip

Net edge-100%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$58per market

Trades / day0.5pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit43%portable

Net worth$352now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 15d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-100.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	1	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
≤90d	1	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
all	1	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.5 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
10%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
15%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
20%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -100% too few recent

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

— vs −$10 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage

Net worth$352

Realized−$9

Unrealized+$12

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 1

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions4

Markets (closed)1 / 7

History coverage15d

Avg bet$58

Trades / day0.5

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 1 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	10¢	10¢	$200	$211	+$11 (+6%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	5¢	5¢	$50	$52	+$2 (+3%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	45¢	44¢	$50	$49	−$1 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	58¢	57¢	$40	$40	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw?	Jun 14	$10	−$10	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	58¢	$41	1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	45¢	$51	1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? AND	BUY	60¢	$30	7d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw?	BUY Yes	16¢	$10	14d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	5¢	$51	14d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN	BUY	21¢	$20	14d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	10¢	$205	15d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $351.97 · official $351.97 (match) · 22 history records