Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:46:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
AA 0xaa88…9155 politics 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 34L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$398per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$10
14 days−$10
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 65% −$11
sports 21% −$5
other 7% −$1
economics 6% $0
world 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 8 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 34 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 34 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$724) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 34
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage78d
Avg bet$398
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30? Jun 17 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $1,247 −$2 -0%
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $18 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $1,154 −$2 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $1,306 −$2 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $62 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $1,210 −$2 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $1,194 −$2 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $67 $0 -0%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 Apr 21 $42 $0 -0%
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Apr 21 $33 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 18 $59 $0 -0%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr Apr 18 $31 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $52 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas finish in second place in the first round of Apr 18 $702 −$1 -0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 18 $746 −$1 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $715 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 17 $742 −$1 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Apr 17 $51 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 17 $747 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $700 −$1 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Apr 16 $724 −$1 -0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Apr 16 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 16 $714 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $724 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 09 $106 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 09 $27 $0 -0%
Will Robert Jenrick be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom i Apr 09 $23 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Apr 05 $107 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 05 $27 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 04 $43 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 01 $19 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 01 $27 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 01 $44 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $50 55m
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $1,245 1h
Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $20 1h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $1,214 1h
Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $15 1h
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $18 1h
Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $15 1h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $33 2h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $860 2h
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $18 2h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $293 2h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,154 2h
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,304 23h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $62 23h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $20 23h
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,245 23h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $16 23h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,208 24h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 24h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,178 24h
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $35 24h
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $924 24h
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 24h
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $268 24h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $32 25h
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,194 25h
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $67 57d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 SELL No 100¢ $42 57d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $50 57d
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL No 99¢ $17 57d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 107 history records