Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:11:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
AA 0xaa89…6cb6 sports 126 markets active 1h ago coverage 267d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1,727 (+5%) realized +$2,195 · open −$468
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate53%63W / 55L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$298per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$157est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$365now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$274
7 days+$274
14 days−$1,702
30 days−$1,131
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% +$965
other 15% +$165
world 1% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +37.7% +24.6% 100% 100% +24.6%
≤30d 16 -6.0% -15.0% 50% 44% -19.3%
≤90d 60 -22.6% -30.0% 38% 37% -20.3%
all 118 +4.1% -5.8% 53% 47% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.8% 47% -5.6%
10% -14.8% 42% -14.6%
15% -23.1% 36% -22.9%
20% -30.6% 31% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +32% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$200 vs −$200 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

267d coverage
Net worth$365
Realized+$2,195
Unrealized−$468
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses63 / 55
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$157
Open positions8
Markets (closed)118 / 126
History coverage267d
Avg bet$298
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 118 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Atlanta Dream win the 2026 WNBA Finals? Yes 12¢ $160 $230 +$70 (+44%)
Will OpTic Texas finish in the top 4 of the CDL Regular Season? Yes 90¢ 100¢ $47 $52 +$5 (+10%)
Will Cloud9 New York finish in the top 4 of the CDL Regular Season? No 95¢ 93¢ $47 $45 −$1 (-2%)
Will Vancouver Surge finish in the top 4 of the CDL Regular Season? No 95¢ 66¢ $28 $20 −$8 (-30%)
Will Boston Breach finish in the top 4 of the CDL Regular Season? No 95¢ 72¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-24%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 −$1 (-30%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Under 48¢ $288 $0 −$288 (-100%)
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Under 48¢ $240 $0 −$240 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $726 +$274 +38%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1,186 −$1,183 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) Jun 11 $0 $0 +31%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 11 $424 −$424 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 05 $377 −$370 -98%
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5 Jun 03 $459 +$141 +31%
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5 Jun 03 $219 −$216 -99%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 02 $400 +$200 +50%
Jalen Williams: Points O/U 13.5 May 29 $3,243 −$147 -4%
Roland Garros WTA: Victoria Mboko vs Katerina Siniakova May 28 $422 +$178 +42%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 May 27 $239 −$235 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Vit Kopriva vs Corentin Moutet May 26 $244 +$156 +64%
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 26 $158 +$542 +344%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) May 24 $2,121 +$179 +8%
Roland Garros ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Damir Dzumhur May 24 $66 −$66 -100%
Athletics vs. San Diego Padres May 23 $163 −$160 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 18 $376 +$524 +140%
Will Corey Conners finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $51 +$7 +13%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 16 $367 +$513 +140%
Will Russell Henley finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 PGA Championship? May 16 $110 +$77 +70%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5 May 15 $382 −$376 -98%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-8.5) May 15 $254 −$250 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Minnesota Twins May 14 $497 +$503 +101%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians May 13 $24 −$23 -98%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 09 $569 +$531 +93%
Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals May 09 $142 +$510 +359%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 06 $605 +$95 +16%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Timberwolves vs. Nuggets May 01 $362 +$231 +64%
Knicks vs. Hawks: O/U 213.5 May 01 $280 +$320 +114%
Spread: Thunder (-9.5) Apr 26 $312 +$328 +105%
Chicago Cubs vs. Philadelphia Phillies Apr 15 $248 +$147 +60%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 12 $515 −$15 -3%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago Cubs Apr 12 $302 −$299 -99%
Call of Duty: Vancouver Surge vs Riyadh Falcons - Game 1 Winner Apr 10 $455 −$455 -100%
Cavaliers vs. 76ers: O/U 238.5 Apr 10 $248 −$248 -100%
Call of Duty: Vancouver Surge vs Riyadh Falcons - Game 2 Winner Apr 10 $227 −$227 -100%
Call of Duty: Vancouver Surge vs Los Angeles Thieves (BO5) - Call of D Apr 10 $70 −$70 -100%
Jazz vs. Warriors Apr 10 $246 −$246 -100%
Mavericks vs. Lakers Apr 10 $32 −$32 -100%
Michigan State Spartans vs. Rutgers Scarlet Knights Apr 10 $400 −$400 -100%
North Carolina State Wolfpack vs. Texas Longhorns Apr 10 $32 −$32 -100%
Pelicans vs. Bulls Apr 10 $250 −$250 -100%
Rams vs. Seahawks Apr 10 $250 −$250 -100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-7.5) Apr 10 $280 −$280 -100%
Saint Louis Billikens vs. Michigan Wolverines Apr 10 $210 −$210 -100%
Spread: Ohio State Buckeyes (-2.5) Apr 10 $176 −$176 -100%
Spread: San Diego State (-1.5) Apr 10 $280 −$280 -100%
Spread: St. John's Red Storm (-7.5) Apr 10 $73 −$73 -100%
Spurs vs. Pacers Apr 10 $245 −$245 -100%
Thunder vs. Grizzlies Apr 10 $446 −$446 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 48¢ $292 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $244 1h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 72¢ $363 4d
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 72¢ $363 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 95¢ $666 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 78¢ $236 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 71¢ $46 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 71¢ $238 7d
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) BUY Spurs 76¢ $0 7d
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) BUY Spurs 53¢ $420 7d
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) BUY Spurs 53¢ $4 7d
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 31¢ $124 13d
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 31¢ $253 13d
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 76¢ $153 15d
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 76¢ $306 15d
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 54¢ $219 15d
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Detroit Tigers 66¢ $400 17d
Jalen Williams: Points O/U 13.5 BUY No 80¢ $20 20d
Jalen Williams: Points O/U 13.5 BUY No 79¢ $21 20d
Jalen Williams: Points O/U 13.5 BUY No 64¢ $16 20d
Jalen Williams: Points O/U 13.5 BUY No 80¢ $400 20d
Jalen Williams: Points O/U 13.5 BUY Yes 35¢ $175 20d
Jalen Williams: Points O/U 13.5 BUY Yes 35¢ $175 20d
Jalen Williams: Points O/U 13.5 BUY Yes 20¢ $2 20d
Jalen Williams: Points O/U 13.5 BUY Yes 18¢ $6 20d
Jalen Williams: Points O/U 13.5 BUY No 97¢ $172 21d
Jalen Williams: Points O/U 13.5 BUY No 99¢ $285 21d
Jalen Williams: Points O/U 13.5 BUY No 98¢ $78 21d
Jalen Williams: Points O/U 13.5 BUY No 97¢ $230 21d
Jalen Williams: Points O/U 13.5 BUY No 94¢ $866 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $364.59 · official $364.27 (match) · 397 history records