Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:29:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaa8c…3b93 other 10 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$100 (-12%) realized −$152 · open +$52
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day9.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$241now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% −$197
sports 26% +$52
world 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-46.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -40.8% -46.4% 0% 0% -39.5%
≤30d 7 -40.8% -46.4% 0% 0% -39.5%
≤90d 7 -40.8% -46.4% 0% 0% -39.5%
all 7 -40.8% -46.4% 0% 0% -39.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -46.4% 0% -39.5%
10% -51.5% 0% -45.3%
15% -56.2% 0% -50.5%
20% -60.5% 0% -55.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -41% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$29 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$241
Realized−$152
Unrealized+$52
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 7
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)7 / 10
History coverage4d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day9.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 70¢ 92¢ $175 $229 +$54 (+31%)
Will Donald Trump enter Iran by June 30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-8%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu enter Iran by June 30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $375 −$76 -20%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $60 −$13 -22%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $50 −$4 -7%
Wimbledon ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 29 $10 −$2 -22%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Jun 29 $82 −$82 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $22 −$21 -96%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $5 −$1 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 70¢ $179 8m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 30¢ $90 10m
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 5¢ $38 12m
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 6¢ $49 12m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 48¢ $31 23m
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 6¢ $9 24m
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 7¢ $11 37m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 59¢ $40 38m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 60¢ $110 40m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 54¢ $209 41m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 36¢ $30 45m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 40¢ $51 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 28¢ $47 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Rinky Hijikata SELL Jesper de Jong 16¢ $8 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 41¢ $39 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Rinky Hijikata BUY Jesper de Jong 19¢ $10 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $28 2h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 18¢ $18 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $26 2h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu enter Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $20 3h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $21 3h
Will Donald Trump enter Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 3h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 28¢ $30 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 5¢ $7 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 7¢ $15 3h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 6¢ $61 2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 6¢ $20 2d
Will Donald Trump enter Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $241.20 · official $218.66 · 34 history records