Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:16:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
AA 0xaa8c…999a crypto 18 markets active 3d ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$98 (+0%) realized +$98 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%18W / 0L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$1,242per market
Trades / day34.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$91
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 18 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 18 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.2%
all 18 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.0% 0% -9.2%
10% -17.7% 0% -17.8%
15% ← realistic here -25.6% 0% -25.8%
20% -32.9% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 48% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,960) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$98
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses18 / 0
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1,242
Trades / day34.3
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET Jun 17 $1,001 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET Jun 17 $2,002 +$29 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $5,000 +$5 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET Jun 16 $47 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $47 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5AM ET Jun 16 $1,299 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4AM ET Jun 16 $1,000 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $200 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $601 +$11 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12AM ET Jun 16 $1,960 +$4 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 15? Jun 16 $840 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 15? Jun 16 $1,000 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 15? Jun 16 $954 +$3 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $2,175 +$3 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10PM ET Jun 16 $2,090 +$3 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10PM ET Jun 16 $1,080 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $1,001 +$16 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1,001 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1,001 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1,001 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $7 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $40 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 100¢ $47 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $5,000 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $300 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $999 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $200 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $601 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $1,000 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $60 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $900 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $1,000 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $54 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $900 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $1,000 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $50 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $200 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $300 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $200 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $200 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $50 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $100 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $25 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $30 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $70 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $900 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $1,000 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 56 history records