Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:35:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AA 0xaa8c…e456 world 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 330d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate25%12W / 36L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% +$2
politics 37% +$1
other 17% +$1
sports 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 17 +0.3% -9.2% 29% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 17 +0.3% -9.2% 29% 0% -9.2%
all 48 +0.7% -8.9% 25% 2% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 2% -9.3%
10% -17.6% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.6% 0% -25.9%
20% -32.9% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.46 per $1 lost it wins $8.46
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

330d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses12 / 36
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage330d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? No 68¢ 68¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $37 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $37 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 22 $14 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $77 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 06 $37 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 06 $19 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $11 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $37 +$1 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $78 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 02 $21 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 31 $40 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $36 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 28 $39 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 28 $39 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $36 +$1 +3%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $4 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 26 $39 $0 +0%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 24 $15 $0 +1%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 03 $5 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 03 $50 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 03 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3000 July 28–August 3? Aug 02 $17 $0 -3%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? Aug 02 $65 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Jim Walden win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 02 $66 $0 +0%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 02 $65 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Judy Shelton as next Fed Chair in 2025? Aug 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Aug 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jul 31 $7 $0 +0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Jul 31 $3 $0 +0%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran in 2025? Jul 31 $7 $0 +0%
Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 31 $1 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 31 $61 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 31 $65 +$1 +2%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 31 $6 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 31 $6 $0 +6%
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk by July 31? Jul 30 $2 $0 +20%
Will Jim Walden win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 30 $57 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? Jul 30 $6 $0 +0%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 29 $57 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 29 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jul 29 $63 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $220 in July? Jul 29 $6 $0 +0%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Jul 29 $2 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 29 $62 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $36 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $37 6h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $37 7h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $30 11h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $7 11h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $37 14h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $5 19h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $9 19h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $8 21h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 21h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 21h
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $36 15d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $5 15d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $41 15d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 54¢ $37 16d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 54¢ $37 16d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 74¢ $19 17d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 74¢ $19 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 28¢ $11 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 28¢ $11 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $37 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $37 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $40 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $40 17d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $28 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $12 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $40 23d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $36 24d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $36 24d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $27 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.30 · official $36.30 (match) · 160 history records