Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T05:45:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score

AA 0xaa8d…9ce4 sports 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$164 (-13%) realized −$163 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip

Net edge-22%after slip

Net WR29%break-even

Win rate35%6W / 11L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$69per market

Trades / day7.3pace

Fees−$17est.

Kalshi-fit83%portable

Net worth$77now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +29%

net ROI/market (all)-18.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	17	-10.0%	-18.6%	35%	29%	-24.0%
≤30d	17	-10.0%	-18.6%	35%	29%	-24.0%
≤90d	17	-10.0%	-18.6%	35%	29%	-24.0%
all	17	-10.0%	-18.6%	35%	29%	-24.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover7.3 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-18.6%	29%	-24.0%
10%	-26.4%	18%	-31.3%
15%	-33.5%	12%	-37.9%
20%	-40.0%	6%	-44.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 50% · top 2 69% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

17% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -10% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -7% → late -13% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$12 vs −$23 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.28 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage

Net worth$77

Realized−$163

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)35%

Wins / losses6 / 11

Est. fees paid−$17

Open positions1

Markets (closed)17 / 18

History coverage5d

Avg bet$69

Trades / day7.3

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 17 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5	Over	75¢	74¢	$78	$77	−$1 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5	Jun 21	$78	$0	+1%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5	Jun 21	$69	+$9	+13%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5	Jun 21	$39	+$13	+34%
Japan leading at halftime?	Jun 21	$10	+$6	+60%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5	Jun 19	$35	−$34	-98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5	Jun 19	$142	−$106	-75%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5	Jun 19	$180	−$38	-21%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5	Jun 19	$101	−$3	-3%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5	Jun 18	$101	−$1	-1%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5	Jun 17	$97	−$50	-52%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5	Jun 17	$101	+$36	+36%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$51	−$3	-5%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$42	−$13	-32%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$38	+$7	+17%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	Jun 17	$31	−$2	-8%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5	Jun 17	$17	−$1	-4%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$31	−$2	-6%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	75¢	$79	1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5	SELL Under	93¢	$79	9h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	92¢	$78	9h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5	SELL Under	100¢	$78	11h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5	BUY Under	88¢	$69	12h
Japan leading at halftime?	SELL Yes	85¢	$16	25h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	74¢	$39	26h
Japan leading at halftime?	BUY Yes	52¢	$10	26h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	42¢	$35	2d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5	SELL Over	69¢	$34	2d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	70¢	$142	2d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5	SELL Under	58¢	$142	2d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	72¢	$180	2d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5	SELL Over	75¢	$98	2d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	76¢	$101	2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5	SELL Over	72¢	$50	3d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5	SELL Over	73¢	$50	3d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	72¢	$101	3d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5	SELL Over	34¢	$47	4d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	68¢	$26	4d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	68¢	$71	4d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	47¢	$48	4d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	73¢	$101	4d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	48¢	$51	4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	38¢	$28	4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	90¢	$45	4d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	SELL Yes	25¢	$14	4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	54¢	$16	4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5	SELL Over	31¢	$17	4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	31¢	$17	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $77.48 · official $77.48 (match) · 39 history records