Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:26:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaa92…ff3b crypto 141 markets active 1d ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$15 (-3%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate58%82W / 59L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day9.3pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$9
14 days−$17
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$40
other 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -14.6% -22.8% 56% 39% -17.8%
≤30d 101 -12.3% -20.7% 54% 42% -17.3%
≤90d 141 -10.2% -18.8% 58% 41% -18.0%
all 141 -10.2% -18.8% 58% 41% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.8% 41% -18.0%
10% -26.5% 28% -25.9%
15% -33.6% 17% -33.0%
20% -40.1% 13% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses82 / 59
Open positions0
Markets (closed)141 / 141
History coverage32d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day9.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 141 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$6 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $7 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $9 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -18%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 16 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +17%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 11 $15 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +27%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 11 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 06 $3 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 06 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 06 $5 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 05 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 05 $14 +$2 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Up 12¢ $0 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $6 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $8 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $7 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $0 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $4 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Down 84¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $4 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $4 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $6 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $3 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 367 history records