Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T05:36:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AA
0xaa93…0bc7
weather · 348 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$10,822 +99%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$40 · open +$31
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$693
Realized−$40
Unrealized+$31
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses80 / 248
Open positions20
Markets (closed)328 / 348
History coverage12d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day278.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 20 History 328 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$108
7 days−$1,001
14 days−$40
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 14? Yes 29¢ 40¢ $164 $224 +$61 (+37%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 14? Yes 35¢ 44¢ $73 $90 +$18 (+24%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 14? Yes 44¢ 48¢ $69 $75 +$6 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? Yes 33¢ 26¢ $74 $57 −$17 (-22%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 14? Yes 19¢ 32¢ $32 $54 +$22 (+70%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? Yes 13¢ 32¢ $16 $39 +$23 (+142%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? Yes 34¢ 38¢ $33 $36 +$3 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 15? Yes 33¢ 32¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? Yes 31¢ 34¢ $24 $26 +$3 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 14? Yes 8¢ 11¢ $12 $17 +$5 (+37%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? Yes 22¢ 38¢ $7 $12 +$5 (+75%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 14? Yes 55¢ 99¢ $6 $11 +$5 (+81%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? Yes 5¢ 24¢ $2 $9 +$8 (+412%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $9 $7 −$3 (-29%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 14? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 14? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+25%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 14? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $54 $0 −$54 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 13? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 13? Yes 37¢ 0¢ $44 $0 −$44 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 13? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$2 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 12? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 11? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $59 $0 −$59 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 12? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 13? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on June 14? Jun 14 $21 −$8 -38%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $82 +$61 +74%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $97 +$58 +60%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 +$18 +733%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $31 +$19 +60%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 13? Jun 13 $22 −$21 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on June 13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 13 $22 −$21 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $32 −$32 -99%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $85 −$81 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $18 −$14 -81%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 −$8 -79%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $13 −$12 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 13? Jun 13 $27 −$25 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $16 −$14 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $13 −$4 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $56 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 13? Jun 13 $35 +$55 +156%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $27 −$26 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $37 −$22 -59%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 +$20 +790%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 12? Jun 13 $15 +$23 +149%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 12 $61 −$13 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 12 $18 −$18 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 +$13 +297%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 12 $17 −$17 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 13? Jun 12 $8 −$7 -99%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 13? Jun 12 $28 −$17 -62%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 −$5 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $11 +$26 +242%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $11 +$6 +59%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $81 −$26 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C or higher on June Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $12 −$10 -84%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $54 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $67 −$8 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $110 −$41 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $41 +$88 +214%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $24 +$128 +528%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $38 −$37 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $48 +$142 +298%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $24 +$5 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 14? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 2m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 27m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 27m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 28m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 28m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 33m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 34m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 36m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 36m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 49¢ $4 36m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 49¢ $6 36m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 39m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 39m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 14? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 40m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? BUY Yes 36¢ $9 51m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 52m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? BUY Yes 36¢ $6 52m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? BUY Yes 36¢ $6 52m
Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on June 14? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 53m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 56m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 59m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 59m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 14? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 49¢ $21 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 14? BUY Yes 29¢ $169 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)+0.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 225 -7.8% -16.6% 23% 20% -18.8%
≤30d 328 +11.4% +0.8% 24% 22% -7.6%
≤90d 328 +11.4% +0.8% 24% 22% -7.6%
all 328 +11.4% +0.8% 24% 22% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover278.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.8% 22% -7.6%
10% ← realistic here -8.8% 21% -16.4%
15% -17.6% 20% -24.5%
20% -25.7% 19% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $693.44 · official $692.10 (match) · 3500 history records