Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T04:12:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
AA 0xaa93…fe97 other 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 219d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$5,734 (-21%) realized −$5,734 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate45%9W / 11L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,394per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$92
7 days−$92
14 days−$92
30 days−$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 99% −$5,652
sports 1% −$134
culture 0% +$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -27.5% -34.4% 43% 43% -13.4%
≤30d 9 -20.3% -27.9% 44% 44% -11.2%
≤90d 14 +11.4% +0.8% 57% 50% -8.0%
all 20 -11.2% -19.7% 45% 35% -28.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.7% 35% -28.4%
10% -27.4% 30% -35.2%
15% -34.4% 15% -41.5%
20% -40.8% 15% -47.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$961) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -18% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$105 vs −$608 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

219d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5,734
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses9 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage219d
Avg bet$1,394
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $302 +$93 +31%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $51 −$34 -66%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $961 +$143 +15%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $101 −$100 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $534 −$265 -50%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $246 −$7 -3%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $252 +$77 +31%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 28 $294 +$75 +26%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $206 −$33 -16%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $29 +$39 +135%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $28 +$47 +168%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 02 $91 +$124 +136%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch? May 01 $264 −$250 -95%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? May 01 $7,020 +$255 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix? Mar 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix? Mar 13 $0 $0 -100%
Over $600M committed to the Monad public sale? Nov 21 $6,999 −$5,993 -86%
Over $400M committed to the Monad public sale? Nov 19 $1,001 $0 -0%
Over $20M committed to the Solomon public sale? Nov 12 $9,488 +$92 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 78¢ $151 1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 17¢ $17 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 74¢ $151 1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 89¢ $843 24h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $427 27h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 27h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $51 28h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 71¢ $261 39h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 76¢ $263 39h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $282 45h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $282 45h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 75¢ $239 45h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 93¢ $330 46h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $145 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $151 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $151 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $151 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $101 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 2d
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL Yes $85 22d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes $173 22d
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL Yes $10 22d
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL Yes $0 22d
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL Yes $25 22d
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL Yes $24 22d
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL Yes $224 22d
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY Yes $37 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 137 history records