Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:42:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaa93…e1d9 other 61 markets active 2h ago coverage 472d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-1%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate47%28W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% −$6
other 25% −$8
politics 6% −$1
finance 5% +$2
sports 4% +$3
crypto 2% $0
tech 2% $0
economics 2% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 15 -2.5% -11.8% 40% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 15 -2.5% -11.8% 40% 0% -10.0%
all 60 -2.1% -11.5% 47% 5% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 5% -10.4%
10% -19.9% 2% -18.9%
15% -27.7% 2% -26.8%
20% -34.8% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

472d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses28 / 32
Open positions1
Markets (closed)60 / 61
History coverage472d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 87¢ 86¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $41 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 22 $16 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $116 −$1 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $15 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $53 −$4 -7%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 02 $52 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 01 $41 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 01 $25 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $52 +$1 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 29 $6 −$2 -25%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 29 $26 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 28 $59 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 28 $53 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $51 +$2 +5%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $3 $0 -12%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Dec 11 $6 +$2 +43%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 26 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Oct 11 $6 $0 +4%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 25 $7 −$1 -12%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jul 25 $16 $0 -0%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 25 $5 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jul 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will GPT-5 be released by December 31? Jul 24 $5 $0 +4%
Will Trump meet with Lula da Silva in 2025? Jul 24 $5 $0 +2%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in July? Jul 09 $1 $0 -12%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 09 $10 $0 -4%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Jul 08 $2 $0 +11%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Jul 06 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 06 $6 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Jul 06 $6 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be greater than 150% on August 15? Jul 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 29 $7 $0 -5%
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 09 $7 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 08 $7 $0 +0%
Will 'The Fantastic Four: First Steps' have the best domestic opening Jun 07 $7 $0 +0%
Will Arjun Erigaisi win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 07 $6 $0 +0%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 07 $6 $0 +4%
Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 05 $1 $0 +5%
Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 05 $7 $0 +6%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 25 $6 $0 -0%
Will Peter Turkson be the next pope? Apr 24 $7 $0 -1%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? Apr 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 6-9%? Apr 22 $6 $0 -0%
Will the SPD be part of the next German government? Apr 21 $6 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense in Trump's first 100 Apr 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? Apr 16 $7 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $48 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $2 15h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $30 15h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $32 15h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 16¢ $16 21h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 23h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 23h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $9 19d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $9 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 30¢ $6 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 30¢ $21 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $28 20d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 20d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 20d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 20d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 20d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 20d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $7 20d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 76¢ $15 20d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 76¢ $34 20d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $12 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $41 21d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $52 21d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $52 21d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $24 22d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $24 22d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $25 22d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $25 22d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 98¢ $33 23d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 98¢ $19 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.58 · official $47.30 (match) · 194 history records