Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T18:44:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AA
0xaa94…e011
other · 33 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
+$1 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$43
Realized+$1
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses11 / 20
Open positions2
Markets (closed)31 / 33
History coverage247d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%
Chart Positions 2 History 31 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 86¢ 84¢ $44 $43 −$1 (-2%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 7¢ 23¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+230%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $48 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $43 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $4 $0 -7%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $2 −$1 -65%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $45 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $21 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $49 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 19 $22 $0 +0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 11 $18 +$4 +19%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $10 $0 -0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $11 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $25 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02? Nov 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 24 $29 +$2 +8%
Will Brighton win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $32 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 20 $75 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 20 $9 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $35 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $18 $0 +0%
Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + D66? Nov 18 $22 −$3 -15%
Will the next Dutch government be another combination? Oct 22 $1 +$1 +36%
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by October 31? Oct 21 $2 $0 +3%
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? Oct 21 $24 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Oct 20 $23 $0 +1%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 20 $24 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 10 $25 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in October? Oct 09 $24 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 46% +$3
world 33% −$2
sports 7% $0
crypto 6% $0
politics 5% $0
tech 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $44 1h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $18 26h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $30 28h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $48 30h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $43 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $14 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $23 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $6 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 5d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 5d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $34 5d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $11 5d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $45 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $7 7d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $14 7d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 7d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $20 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $49 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $49 8d
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? SELL No 80¢ $5 199d
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? BUY No 80¢ $2 199d
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? BUY No 80¢ $3 199d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -14.4% -22.5% 40% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 7 -10.3% -18.9% 29% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 8 -9.0% -17.7% 38% 0% -10.1%
all 31 -0.7% -10.1% 35% 6% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 6% -9.3%
10% -18.7% 3% -18.0%
15% -26.6% 3% -25.9%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.13 · official $43.09 (match) · 148 history records