Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:44:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
AA 0xaa95…b544 crypto 66 markets active 1h ago coverage 234d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$147 (-29%) realized −$147 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate30%18W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 33% −$8
sports 31% +$41
other 29% −$58
weather 3% −$16
politics 3% −$7
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)+10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +33.7% +20.9% 25% 25% -8.7%
≤30d 32 +33.7% +20.9% 25% 25% -8.7%
≤90d 32 +33.7% +20.9% 25% 25% -8.7%
all 60 +21.9% +10.3% 30% 28% -20.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.3% 28% -20.9%
10% -0.3% 28% -28.5%
15% -9.9% 23% -35.4%
20% -18.8% 22% -41.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +35% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$6 · ×1.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$147
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses18 / 42
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)60 / 66
History coverage234d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Yes 55¢ 55¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 AND Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Scor Jun 23 $10 +$22 +211%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $35 −$34 -98%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 AND New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams t Jun 22 $8 +$57 +699%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Sweden? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 202 Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 22 $10 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 22 $7 +$2 +33%
Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Sweden? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-11-26? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 22 $9 −$9 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Sweden? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 22 $29 +$8 +27%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Neither team to score first? Jun 21 $1 +$24 +2330%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 Jun 20 $15 +$21 +139%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $13 +$21 +158%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-11-26? Jun 18 $5 +$6 +113%
Will Elon Musk post 760-799 tweets in November 2025? Nov 21 $1 +$1 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Nov 21 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Nov 21 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Nov 21 $15 +$24 +159%
Will Elon Musk post 680-719 tweets in November 2025? Nov 11 $1 +$9 +900%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 202 Nov 11 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Nov 11 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Nov 11 $5 +$4 +80%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 202 Nov 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in November 2025? Nov 11 $1 −$1 -79%
Will Elon Musk post 720-759 tweets in November 2025? Nov 11 $1 −$1 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Nov 11 $2 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Nov 11 $1 +$1 +123%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 202 Nov 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Charlie Kirk be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Nov 11 $5 −$1 -15%
Will Donald Trump say "Syria / Syrian" 10+ times during Syria Presiden Nov 10 $4 −$3 -86%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on November Nov 07 $0 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on No Nov 07 $12 −$12 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $35 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND BUY 20¢ $13 8h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 20h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 20h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? AND Wi BUY 53¢ $20 30h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on BUY 30¢ $12 35h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 AND Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Scor SELL 99¢ $32 35h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $31 44h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $4 44h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 AND Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Scor BUY 31¢ $10 2d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will A BUY 38¢ $20 2d
Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals BUY Yes 47¢ $5 2d
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals BUY Yes 34¢ $5 2d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 AND New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams t BUY 12¢ $8 3d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06 BUY 2¢ $1 3d
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $15 3d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 SELL 94¢ $36 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $34 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 38¢ $13 3d
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 BUY 39¢ $15 4d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 4d
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 5d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.68 · official $59.11 · 153 history records