trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 7 | -1.4% | -10.8% | 14% | 0% | -10.3% |
| ≤30d | 11 | -0.6% | -10.1% | 18% | 0% | -9.4% |
| ≤90d | 12 | -0.8% | -10.2% | 17% | 0% | -9.6% |
| all | 27 | +5.7% | -4.4% | 41% | 4% | -6.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -4.4% | 4% | -6.4% |
| 10% | -13.5% | 4% | -15.3% |
| 15% | -21.9% | 4% | -23.5% |
| 20% | -29.5% | 4% | -31.0% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | 67¢ | 68¢ | $50 | $50 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? | Jun 20 | $19 | $0 | -1% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Jun 20 | $25 | $0 | +0% |
| Cuban regime falls in 2026? | Jun 19 | $39 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 19 | $86 | $0 | -0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | Jun 19 | $22 | $0 | -0% |
| Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 | Jun 18 | $16 | −$2 | -10% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Jun 17 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | May 27 | $28 | −$1 | -3% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | May 24 | $49 | +$3 | +6% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | May 23 | $15 | $0 | -0% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | May 23 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | May 21 | $34 | −$1 | -2% |
| Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? | Dec 29 | $42 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Benfica win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Dec 09 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? | Dec 09 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? | Dec 09 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106K and $108K on June 6? | Jun 08 | $1 | $0 | +3% |
| Will George Simion win by over 18%? | May 23 | $1 | $0 | +3% |
| Will FDP be part of the next German government? | Apr 06 | $40 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Lyon win the UEFA Europa League? | Apr 05 | $28 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2025 World Series? | Apr 04 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Tennessee Titans? | Apr 03 | $40 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? | Apr 01 | $84 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Trump meet with Pope Francis in his first 100 days? | Mar 31 | $42 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon tweet less than 300 times March 21-28? | Mar 26 | $42 | $0 | +0% |
| Norfolk State vs. Florida | Mar 23 | $41 | +$1 | +2% |
| Blues vs. Capitals | Mar 21 | $16 | +$25 | +150% |