Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:40:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaa96…981d world 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 478d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$26 (+3%) realized +$26 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate41%11W / 16L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% $0
other 37% +$1
politics 11% $0
sports 7% +$26
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -1.4% -10.8% 14% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 11 -0.6% -10.1% 18% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 12 -0.8% -10.2% 17% 0% -9.6%
all 27 +5.7% -4.4% 41% 4% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.4% 4% -6.4%
10% -13.5% 4% -15.3%
15% -21.9% 4% -23.5%
20% -29.5% 4% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 83% · top 2 94% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$0 · ×6.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.36 per $1 lost it wins $7.36
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

478d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses11 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 28
History coverage478d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 67¢ 68¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $19 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $25 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $39 $0 +1%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $86 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $22 $0 -0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $16 −$2 -10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 27 $28 −$1 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $49 +$3 +6%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 23 $15 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $2 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 21 $34 −$1 -2%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Dec 29 $42 $0 +0%
Will Benfica win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 09 $1 $0 +2%
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? Dec 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Dec 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106K and $108K on June 6? Jun 08 $1 $0 +3%
Will George Simion win by over 18%? May 23 $1 $0 +3%
Will FDP be part of the next German government? Apr 06 $40 $0 +0%
Will Lyon win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 05 $28 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2025 World Series? Apr 04 $12 $0 +0%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Tennessee Titans? Apr 03 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? Apr 01 $84 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Pope Francis in his first 100 days? Mar 31 $42 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 300 times March 21-28? Mar 26 $42 $0 +0%
Norfolk State vs. Florida Mar 23 $41 +$1 +2%
Blues vs. Capitals Mar 21 $16 +$25 +150%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $50 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $19 14h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $19 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $22 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $4 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $3 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $22 25h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $40 27h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $6 31h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $34 31h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $40 36h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $41 39h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $22 43h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $6 45h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $14 45h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 45h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $2 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $43 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $45 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 29¢ $14 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 32¢ $12 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 32¢ $3 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 32¢ $1 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $2 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $2 3d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL No 87¢ $27 24d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $28 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 67¢ $48 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 67¢ $4 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 63¢ $49 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.95 · official $49.95 (match) · 90 history records