Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T01:17:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
AA 0xaa99…dbbf world 368 markets active 2h ago coverage 122d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 122d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$38,588 (+10%) realized +$37,872 · open +$716
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate61%196W / 124L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$1,067per market
Trades / day26.6pace
Fees−$58est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$23,397now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$251
7 days+$3,247
14 days+$5,492
30 days+$11,298
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% +$11,983
other 19% +$9,071
politics 13% +$386
sports 8% +$257
crypto 5% +$3,420
tech 3% +$1,932
economics 1% +$917
finance 1% +$319
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +26.1% +14.1% 67% 62% +5.9%
≤30d 95 +16.7% +5.6% 61% 45% +1.7%
≤90d 258 +13.5% +2.7% 59% 44% -2.6%
all 320 +19.8% +8.4% 61% 43% -2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.6 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +8.4% 43% -2.2%
10% -2.0% 32% -11.6%
15% ← realistic here -11.4% 26% -20.1%
20% -20.1% 21% -28.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$984) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +17% → late +23% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$274 vs −$211 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.05 per $1 lost it wins $2.05
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$23,397
Realized+$37,872
Unrealized+$716
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses196 / 124
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$58
Open positions49
Markets (closed)320 / 368
History coverage122d ⚠
Avg bet$1,067
Trades / day26.6
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 49 History 320 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Minnesota use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? No 89¢ 97¢ $4,572 $4,963 +$390 (+9%)
Will North Carolina use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? Yes 88¢ 96¢ $1,732 $1,884 +$153 (+9%)
Will New Jersey use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? No 85¢ 96¢ $1,478 $1,657 +$179 (+12%)
Will there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30? No 84¢ 100¢ $1,380 $1,647 +$267 (+19%)
Rotisserie Chicken Act becomes law by June 30? No 97¢ 93¢ $1,444 $1,386 −$58 (-4%)
Will Nebraska use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? No 87¢ 96¢ $986 $1,084 +$98 (+10%)
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15? Yes 78¢ 94¢ $888 $1,070 +$182 (+21%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 74¢ 100¢ $742 $1,006 +$264 (+36%)
U.S. issues passport with Trump's face on it by July 31? Yes 72¢ 90¢ $720 $895 +$175 (+24%)
Will Slovakia pass the 2026 referendum question restoring the Office of the Special Prosecutor and National Crime Agency? No 84¢ 96¢ $740 $851 +$111 (+15%)
Will Elsa Pinto win the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential elections? No 59¢ 100¢ $400 $674 +$274 (+68%)
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026? Yes 35¢ 36¢ $538 $541 +$3 (+1%)
Congress approves Iran deal in 2026? No 57¢ 84¢ $340 $501 +$161 (+47%)
Will Kanye West visit Israel by June 30? No 71¢ 100¢ $351 $494 +$143 (+41%)
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $582 $448 −$134 (-23%)
Will Wisconsin use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? No 83¢ 94¢ $388 $439 +$51 (+13%)
Will Letitia James be arrested before 2027? No 44¢ 74¢ $202 $340 +$138 (+69%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 53¢ 40¢ $424 $324 −$100 (-24%)
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 26? No 90¢ 99¢ $289 $316 +$27 (+9%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Yes 19¢ 10¢ $568 $315 −$253 (-45%)
Will there be exactly 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30? Yes 32¢ 98¢ $102 $309 +$207 (+203%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $178 $263 +$85 (+48%)
Will Slovakia pass the 2026 referendum question cancelling the lifetime annuity for politicians? No 77¢ 92¢ $219 $261 +$42 (+19%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? No 39¢ 78¢ $117 $236 +$118 (+101%)
Nicușor Dan out as President of Romania in 2026? No 57¢ 91¢ $133 $212 +$79 (+60%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31? Jun 29 $523 +$122 +23%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? Jun 29 $856 −$110 -13%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026? Jun 29 $1,080 +$416 +38%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 29 $2,642 −$176 -7%
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 30? Jun 28 $565 +$823 +146%
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? Jun 27 $305 +$842 +276%
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 27 $2,471 −$1,150 -47%
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 27? Jun 27 $524 −$524 -100%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 26? Jun 27 $929 +$138 +15%
Will Trump say "Mutilation" during Faith & Freedom Coalition Conferenc Jun 26 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 17? Jun 26 $771 +$523 +68%
Will Waymo launch in Nashville by June 30 2026? Jun 25 $1,393 +$1,456 +104%
GPT-5.6 released by July 15, 2026? Jun 25 $74 +$10 +13%
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? Jun 25 $1,224 +$206 +17%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 25 $1,609 −$17 -1%
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid Jun 24 $33 +$11 +34%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 26, 2026? Jun 24 $450 +$22 +5%
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? Jun 23 $1,323 +$207 +16%
Will Trump attend 1 World Cup match? Jun 23 $198 −$81 -41%
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? Jun 23 $1,565 +$275 +18%
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? Jun 23 $424 +$356 +84%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 21 $1,621 +$33 +2%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the Jun 21 $116 −$69 -60%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 21 $232 −$43 -18%
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $228 +$156 +68%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $4,344 +$1,556 +36%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $1,429 +$13 +1%
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? Jun 19 $441 +$562 +127%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $602 +$278 +46%
Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? Jun 19 $107 +$14 +14%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 18 $804 −$280 -35%
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $348 −$348 -100%
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? Jun 17 $468 +$359 +77%
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 17 $224 −$9 -4%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 17 $229 −$165 -72%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? Jun 17 $200 −$64 -32%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $150 +$6 +4%
Will Donald Trump visit India in 2026? Jun 17 $340 +$260 +76%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Jun 17 $180 +$47 +26%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $406 +$30 +7%
Will Oman sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? Jun 16 $61 +$16 +26%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 16 $202 −$80 -40%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 16 $76 −$76 -100%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Jun 16 $93 +$88 +95%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 16 $420 −$40 -10%
Will Maryland use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States m Jun 15 $2,728 −$65 -2%
Will Waymo operate in 11 cities on June 30 2026? Jun 15 $337 +$89 +26%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $157 +$83 +53%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $11,199 +$543 +5%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 14 $1,290 +$557 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31? SELL Yes 43¢ $645 2h
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $453 2h
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $152 2h
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31? BUY Yes 34¢ $523 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $389 7h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026? SELL No 52¢ $1,038 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 20¢ $400 8h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $540 9h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026? BUY No 39¢ $780 10h
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? BUY Yes 29¢ $14 28h
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 28h
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? BUY Yes 30¢ $108 28h
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? BUY Yes 30¢ $9 28h
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? BUY Yes 30¢ $89 28h
Rotisserie Chicken Act becomes law by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $1,446 28h
No one announced as next James Bond? BUY No 8¢ $165 33h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $458 33h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 47h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? BUY Yes 9¢ $6 47h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 47h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? BUY Yes 9¢ $7 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? BUY Yes 9¢ $7 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? BUY Yes 9¢ $20 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? BUY Yes 9¢ $20 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? BUY Yes 9¢ $9 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23,397.45 · official $23,394.34 (match) · 3500 history records