Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T05:24:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
AA 0xaa9a…3b3e crypto 334 markets active 2h ago coverage 366d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$43,127 (-1%) realized −$43,131 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate97%322W / 10L
Whale WR98%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9,843per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$22,796now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$77
7 days+$171
14 days+$317
30 days+$219
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$4,277
world 1% −$47,027
politics 0% −$560
other 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 62 -2.9% -12.1% 97% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 179 -1.4% -10.8% 98% 0% -11.9%
all 332 -1.0% -10.4% 97% 0% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.4% 0% -10.7%
10% ← realistic here -19.0% 0% -19.3%
15% -26.8% 0% -27.1%
20% -34.0% 0% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 98% (≥$15,710) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$4,772 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

366d coverage
Net worth$22,796
Realized−$43,131
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses322 / 10
Whale WR (big bets)98%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)332 / 334
History coverage366d
Avg bet$9,843
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 332 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 29? No 100¢ 100¢ $11,396 $11,402 +$6 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 29? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $11,396 $11,395 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 27? Jun 28 $7,992 +$15 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 27? Jun 28 $14,767 +$20 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 26? Jun 27 $4,037 +$24 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 26? Jun 27 $18,680 +$17 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $2,235 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $4,152 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $16,308 +$15 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 24? Jun 25 $3,142 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 24? Jun 25 $19,533 +$18 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $4,685 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $7,002 +$7 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $7,827 +$7 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $8,644 +$8 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $5,437 +$17 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $8,542 +$8 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $3,990 +$16 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $5,217 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $13,381 +$15 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $898 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $1,981 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $5,164 +$10 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 19? Jun 20 $380 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19? Jun 20 $3,582 +$7 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? Jun 20 $15,710 +$15 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $4,762 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $7,234 +$7 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $2,582 +$16 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $3,182 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? Jun 18 $1,520 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? Jun 18 $2,850 +$3 +0%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $4,544 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $7,768 +$7 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $10,174 +$21 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $6,936 +$6 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $7,768 +$7 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $1,691 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $3,802 +$8 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $16,948 +$21 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 13? Jun 14 $6,353 +$6 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 13? Jun 14 $10,579 +$10 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? Jun 13 $22,404 +$21 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $22,384 +$21 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $2,742 +$8 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $19,615 +$18 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $1,116 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $21,220 +$20 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $22,315 +$21 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $22,274 +$42 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $22,253 +$21 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 29? BUY Yes 100¢ $7,252 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 29? BUY Yes 100¢ $3,893 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 29? BUY Yes 100¢ $62 12h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 29? BUY Yes 100¢ $190 12h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $11,397 12h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $3,934 46h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $3,934 46h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $7,992 47h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $6,898 47h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $7,321 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $498 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $1,322 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $2,217 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $11,359 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $16,308 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $53 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,235 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $4,099 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $9,766 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $9,766 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $3,142 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $4,685 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $7,827 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $7,002 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $8,542 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $103 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $8,644 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $3,681 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,653 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $5,217 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22,796.47 · official $22,796.47 (match) · 1317 history records