Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:49:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaa9c…90d1 crypto 405 markets active 1h ago coverage 761d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,474 (-10%) realized −$1,474 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate51%205W / 198L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21
7 days−$101
14 days−$100
30 days−$261
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 59% −$561
other 29% −$186
world 6% −$634
finance 3% −$43
sports 2% −$173
politics 2% −$13
tech 0% −$6
culture 0% −$2
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -41.3% -46.9% 23% 23% -30.5%
≤30d 40 -27.2% -34.1% 30% 20% -32.5%
≤90d 172 -13.6% -21.8% 47% 33% -12.9%
all 403 -9.7% -18.3% 51% 39% -19.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.3% 39% -19.7%
10% -26.1% 30% -27.4%
15% -33.2% 23% -34.4%
20% -39.8% 16% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$20 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

761d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized−$1,474
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses205 / 198
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)403 / 405
History coverage761d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 403 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $60 $60 +$0 (+1%)
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$7 +73%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $68 +$34 +50%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $89 +$17 +19%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $42 −$5 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $22 −$6 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $81 −$34 -42%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $8 +$12 +147%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$20 +194%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? AND Jun 13 $10 −$1 -14%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $44 +$1 +1%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $55 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $19 −$17 -91%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $36 +$8 +21%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $11 −$6 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11AM ET Jun 06 $26 +$1 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 11AM ET Jun 06 $26 +$1 +3%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $7 $0 +1%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $10 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 03 $1 $0 +25%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $33 −$7 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 02 $62 −$44 -71%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 2, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 02 $51 −$5 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 02 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 02 $22 −$1 -4%
Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $10 −$4 -38%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 24, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET May 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET May 26 $26 −$11 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET May 26 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 21? May 26 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET May 24 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET May 21 $11 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET May 21 $21 +$11 +53%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET May 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET May 15 $100 −$3 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET May 15 $20 +$7 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET May 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET May 13 $25 +$62 +249%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET May 13 $111 +$50 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET May 13 $23 +$20 +86%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $8 38m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 88¢ $10 50m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 54m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $10 56m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $101 1h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $68 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $106 4d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 84¢ $39 4d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $50 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 7d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 33¢ $18 7d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 24¢ $11 7d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 58¢ $47 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $9 7d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 2¢ $9 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $39 7d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.27 · official $68.27 (match) · 1328 history records