Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:35:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaaa0…e78a sports 7 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (134 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$300 (+11%) realized +$308 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate67%4W / 2L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$394per market
Trades / day134.0pace
Fees−$45est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$273
other 11% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-3.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +6.8% -3.3% 67% 33% -0.1%
≤30d 6 +6.8% -3.3% 67% 33% -0.1%
≤90d 6 +6.8% -3.3% 67% 33% -0.1%
all 6 +6.8% -3.3% 67% 33% -0.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover134.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.3% 33% -0.1%
10% ← realistic here -12.6% 17% -9.7%
15% -21.0% 0% -18.4%
20% -28.8% 0% -26.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 86% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
11.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$71 vs −$1 · ×72.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×145.2 per $1 lost it wins $145.2
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized+$308
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Est. fees paid−$45
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$394
Trades / day134.0
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Under 9¢ 8¢ $51 $42 −$8 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $106 −$2 -2%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 17 $525 +$39 +7%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,439 +$166 +12%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $324 +$78 +24%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $300 $0 +0%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 10¢ $45 1m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 10¢ $18 2m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 9¢ $15 3m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 9¢ $2 3m
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Felix Auger-Aliassime 55¢ $17 1h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Felix Auger-Aliassime 53¢ $5 1h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Felix Auger-Aliassime 49¢ $0 1h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Felix Auger-Aliassime 50¢ $2 1h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 53¢ $25 1h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Felix Auger-Aliassime 83¢ $7 1h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Felix Auger-Aliassime 83¢ $1 1h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Felix Auger-Aliassime 83¢ $15 1h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 92¢ $14 1h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 92¢ $12 1h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Felix Auger-Aliassime 67¢ $10 1h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Felix Auger-Aliassime 67¢ $13 1h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 73¢ $25 1h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Felix Auger-Aliassime 61¢ $30 1h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Felix Auger-Aliassime 61¢ $3 1h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 55¢ $31 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo SELL TDK 25¢ $27 3h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo SELL TDK 25¢ $6 3h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo SELL TDK 25¢ $1 3h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo SELL TDK 25¢ $6 3h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo SELL TDK 25¢ $3 3h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY TDK 24¢ $8 3h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo SELL TDK 17¢ $4 3h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY TDK 15¢ $25 3h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo SELL Team Nemesis 81¢ $24 3h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY Team Nemesis 78¢ $24 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.17 · official $42.17 (match) · 135 history records