trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 9 | -0.9% | -10.3% | 33% | 0% | -10.0% |
| ≤90d | 9 | -0.9% | -10.3% | 33% | 0% | -10.0% |
| all | 26 | +3.6% | -6.3% | 50% | 4% | -7.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -6.3% | 4% | -7.1% |
| 10% | -15.3% | 4% | -16.0% |
| 15% | -23.4% | 4% | -24.1% |
| 20% | -31.0% | 4% | -31.6% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 52¢ | 51¢ | $51 | $50 | −$1 (-2%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | Jun 14 | $51 | $0 | +1% |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 14 | $22 | −$1 | -7% |
| Netanyahu out by June 30? | Jun 14 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | Jun 13 | $59 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 12 | $51 | −$1 | -2% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Jun 12 | $53 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 10 | $58 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 09 | $11 | −$1 | -9% |
| Iran Nuke before 2027? | Jun 08 | $7 | +$1 | +8% |
| Will Elon Musk unfollow Donald Trump before July? | Dec 10 | $1 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? | Dec 10 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? | Dec 10 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Anthropic have the top AI model on May 31? | Jun 01 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in April? | May 06 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Florida win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | Mar 26 | $16 | −$1 | -9% |
| Will 'Snow White' gross between 39-44m on opening weekend? | Mar 25 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 51°F or below on March 25? | Mar 25 | $12 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 68°F or higher on March 21? | Mar 23 | $29 | $0 | +0% |
| Will 'Alto Knights' gross more than 7m on opening weekend? | Mar 21 | $29 | $0 | +0% |
| Will another coalition form the next German Government? | Mar 21 | $21 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian Presidential election by 5-10%? | Mar 20 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Mercer vs. East Tennessee State | Feb 26 | $24 | $0 | +0% |
| George Washington vs. Loyola Chicago | Feb 26 | $25 | +$2 | +10% |
| Will the highest temperature in NYC be 59°F or higher on February 25? | Feb 25 | $31 | −$4 | -13% |
| Buffalo vs. Central Michigan | Feb 25 | $31 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the CDU/CSU win 25-30% of the vote in the German election? | Feb 25 | $10 | +$21 | +201% |