Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T05:37:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AA 0xaaa4…3b47 politics 137 markets active 0h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,595 (+1%) realized +$1,591 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate23%31W / 105L
Whale WR3%big bets
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$1,354per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$319now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$13
14 days−$21
30 days−$135
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 41% −$81
other 36% +$81
sports 17% +$1,560
world 5% −$5
crypto 1% +$1
tech 1% $0
culture 0% −$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 31 -4.8% -13.9% 6% 3% -9.8%
≤90d 96 -11.6% -20.0% 8% 4% -9.6%
all 136 +1.3% -8.3% 23% 15% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 15% -8.8%
10% -17.1% 14% -17.5%
15% -25.1% 12% -25.5%
20% -32.5% 10% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 3% (≥$1,745) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +5% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$92 vs −$13 · ×7.34 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.19 per $1 lost it wins $2.19
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$319
Realized+$1,591
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses31 / 105
Whale WR (big bets)3%
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)136 / 137
History coverage130d
Avg bet$1,354
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 136 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $315 $319 +$4 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 22 $749 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $349 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $3,730 −$5 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $3,209 −$4 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $754 −$1 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $765 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $764 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $690 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 11 $2,126 −$3 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 11 $1,084 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $840 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $1,098 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $1,080 −$2 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 07 $1,050 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $2,498 −$3 -0%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 06 $57 −$57 -100%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $1,034 −$2 -0%
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 03 $72 −$72 -100%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $1,007 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? Jun 02 $940 +$1 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $2,924 −$3 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $2,983 −$3 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 01 $355 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $5,921 −$6 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? May 28 $588 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 28 $844 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $2,304 −$3 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $868 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $1,516 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $3,000 −$4 -0%
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks May 25 $86 +$47 +55%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $1,592 −$2 -0%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 23 $74 −$74 -100%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $2,883 −$4 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $1,449 −$2 -0%
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 21 $1,264 −$2 -0%
Will John Stephens win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? May 21 $1,698 −$2 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $1,679 −$2 -0%
Avalanche vs. Wild May 21 $1,447 +$1,103 +76%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $2,414 −$3 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $1,320 −$2 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $5,093 −$5 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 29 $2,678 −$3 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 26 $1,218 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $1,288 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $2,887 −$3 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 24 $1,076 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $2,620 −$4 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 22 $1,312 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $1,388 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $748 10m
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $749 1h
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $348 2d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $349 2d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $659 3d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $660 3d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $532 3d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $533 3d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $753 4d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $754 4d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $764 5d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $765 5d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $763 5d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $764 6d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $689 7d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $690 7d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $315 10d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,068 10d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,069 10d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,055 10d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,057 11d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $1,083 11d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $1,084 11d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $839 12d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $840 12d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,097 12d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,098 12d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,078 14d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,080 14d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $1,049 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $319.06 · official $319.06 (match) · 466 history records