Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:28:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AA 0xaaa6…0bee crypto 27 markets active 0h ago coverage 222d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$881 (-16%) realized −$873 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate50%13W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$199per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$191now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,321
7 days+$1,321
14 days+$1,321
30 days+$1,390
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% +$532
politics 17% −$157
economics 5% +$16
other 4% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +53.3% +38.7% 83% 83% +41.9%
≤30d 7 +64.5% +48.8% 86% 86% +43.4%
≤90d 23 -6.3% -15.2% 48% 43% +1.0%
all 26 -1.2% -10.6% 50% 42% -2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 42% -2.7%
10% -19.1% 42% -12.0%
15% -27.0% 38% -20.5%
20% -34.1% 38% -28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$137 vs −$106 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

222d coverage
Net worth$191
Realized−$873
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses13 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage222d
Avg bet$199
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $199 $191 −$8 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 19 $508 +$512 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 19 $488 +$142 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 19 $307 +$183 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 19 $312 −$2 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 19 $498 +$364 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 19 $212 +$122 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 24 $52 +$69 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET May 09 $103 −$98 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET May 09 $72 −$70 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET May 09 $116 +$89 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET May 09 $80 −$76 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET May 08 $100 −$97 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 06 $22 −$21 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET May 01 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET May 01 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 01 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET May 01 $377 −$377 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET May 01 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Apr 22 $57 +$88 +155%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Apr 17 $339 −$339 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Apr 17 $21 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Apr 17 $116 +$98 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Apr 16 $8 +$14 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Mar 07 $61 +$78 +126%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 10 $270 +$16 +6%
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11? Nov 10 $909 −$157 -17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $1,020 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $508 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $630 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $488 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $307 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Down 42¢ $310 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $312 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $698 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $164 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 43¢ $164 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $334 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $333 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $212 1h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 12¢ $204 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $26 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $26 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $103 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $72 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $205 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $116 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $80 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $100 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $22 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $7 49d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $16 49d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $145 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $57 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $21 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $21 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $213 63d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $190.62 · official $190.62 (match) · 55 history records