Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:25:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
AA 0xaaa8…7ea2 sports 581 markets active 0h ago coverage 220d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$23,883 (+2%) realized +$23,858 · open +$25
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate65%376W / 202L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$1,963per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$2,368est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$2,125now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$366
7 days+$830
14 days+$218
30 days+$288
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$21,750
other 1% +$563
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +13.9% +3.0% 100% 75% -4.2%
≤30d 13 +11.4% +0.8% 85% 62% -8.3%
≤90d 153 +0.0% -9.5% 67% 31% -8.2%
all 578 -1.6% -11.0% 65% 33% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.0% 33% -7.8%
10% ← realistic here -19.5% 17% -16.6%
15% -27.3% 9% -24.6%
20% -34.4% 6% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$2,131) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$210 vs −$281 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

220d coverage
Net worth$2,125
Realized+$23,858
Unrealized+$25
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses376 / 202
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Est. fees paid−$2,368
Open positions3
Markets (closed)578 / 581
History coverage220d
Avg bet$1,963
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 578 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $1,000 $1,030 +$30 (+3%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? No 87¢ 88¢ $600 $603 +$3 (+1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 85¢ 84¢ $500 $491 −$9 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $502 +$86 +17%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,004 +$124 +12%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $502 +$86 +17%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $503 +$71 +14%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5,002 +$49 +1%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5,001 +$49 +1%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $303 +$74 +24%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1,229 +$292 +24%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $5,837 −$612 -10%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $104 +$78 +76%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $1,532 +$90 +6%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $716 −$192 -27%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $307 +$93 +30%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 16 $21,015 +$599 +3%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 14 $815 −$157 -19%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 13 $1,008 +$221 +22%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $8,053 +$340 +4%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 11 $1,012 −$398 -39%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 10 $8,063 +$1,873 +23%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 09 $505 +$122 +24%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 08 $9,037 +$476 +5%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 07 $1,007 +$284 +28%
76ers vs. Knicks May 07 $1,513 −$93 -6%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 06 $6,025 +$933 +16%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 06 $409 −$167 -41%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 05 $306 −$218 -71%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 04 $353 −$272 -77%
Pistons vs. Magic May 02 $1,004 −$321 -32%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves May 01 $1,008 −$375 -37%
Knicks vs. Hawks May 01 $304 +$213 +70%
Celtics vs. 76ers May 01 $505 −$39 -8%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 30 $1,012 −$368 -36%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 29 $14,017 +$608 +4%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 29 $5,007 +$256 +5%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 29 $1,006 +$13 +1%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 28 $1,000 +$210 +21%
Thunder vs. Suns Apr 28 $2,000 +$451 +23%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 28 $2,000 −$438 -22%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 27 $300 −$119 -40%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 26 $2,000 −$1,150 -58%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 26 $1,000 −$255 -26%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 25 $500 +$212 +42%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 25 $2,300 −$762 -33%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 25 $300 +$168 +56%
Celtics vs. 76ers Apr 25 $1,000 −$46 -5%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 24 $300 −$72 -24%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 24 $1,000 −$180 -18%
Suns vs. Thunder Apr 23 $7,000 +$572 +8%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 23 $1,500 +$461 +31%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 22 $3,000 −$1,478 -49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 97¢ $1,001 26m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 85¢ $502 2h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 87¢ $602 3h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 85¢ $502 9h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 99¢ $1,127 21h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 87¢ $502 21h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $502 22h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 85¢ $502 24h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 95¢ $573 26h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 83¢ $503 27h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $5,051 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 99¢ $5,002 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 99¢ $5,001 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 81¢ $378 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $303 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 23¢ $270 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 25¢ $11 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 19¢ $78 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 18¢ $307 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 27¢ $393 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 20¢ $307 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 24¢ $399 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 18¢ $307 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 24¢ $370 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 19¢ $307 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 88¢ $5,039 9d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 87¢ $5,019 9d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks $185 9d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks $103 9d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 18¢ $102 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,125.04 · official $2,125.04 (match) · 1901 history records