Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:03:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaaaa…6783 crypto 216 markets active 2h ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$374 (-6%) realized −$338 · open −$36
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate55%117W / 95L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$84est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$90now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$50
7 days−$29
14 days−$18
30 days−$109
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 45% −$18
world 14% −$48
crypto 11% −$67
finance 10% −$58
other 9% −$133
economics 7% −$84
politics 3% −$28
tech 0% −$1
culture 0% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -1.8% -11.2% 45% 39% -13.9%
≤30d 148 -2.0% -11.4% 66% 43% -15.5%
≤90d 212 -5.9% -14.9% 55% 36% -15.5%
all 212 -5.9% -14.9% 55% 36% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 36% -15.5%
10% -23.0% 24% -23.6%
15% -30.5% 18% -30.9%
20% -37.3% 13% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$8 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$90
Realized−$338
Unrealized−$36
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses117 / 95
Est. fees paid−$84
Open positions4
Markets (closed)212 / 216
History coverage62d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 212 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 42¢ 27¢ $84 $54 −$30 (-36%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 89¢ 70¢ $40 $32 −$8 (-21%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 4.5 Corners Over 5¢ 19¢ $1 $5 +$3 (+280%)
Call of Duty: Vancouver Surge vs Miami Heretics (BO5) - Call of Duty League Stage 4 Major Qualifiers Qualifier Miami Heretics 20¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $3 $0 -15%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $24 +$57 +239%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $2 +$8 +400%
Will Racing 92 win? Jun 19 $6 +$2 +37%
Will Leinster win? Jun 19 $2 $0 +3%
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
ITF Blois: Lucie Nguyen Tan vs Despina Papamichail Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $40 +$42 +104%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $40 +$37 +92%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 19 $27 +$4 +14%
Rainbow Six Siege: DarkZero Esports vs Wildcard Gaming (BO1) - North A Jun 19 $5 +$11 +233%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 19 $40 +$8 +19%
Rainbow Six Siege: 100 Thieves vs Shopify Rebellion (BO1) - North Amer Jun 18 $5 +$5 +96%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 18 $23 +$24 +104%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 Jun 18 $108 −$50 -46%
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Chun-Hsin Tseng Jun 18 $40 −$40 -100%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $2 +$3 +104%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Ali Habib vs Milan Ristov Jun 17 $17 +$4 +27%
ITF Tauste: Meritxell Teixido Garcia vs Iveta Dapkute Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Nottingham 2 (Doubles): Barrientos/Behar vs Balaji/Demoliner Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
ITF Tauste: Belle Thompson vs Celia Anson Sanchez Jun 16 $29 −$29 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $10 +$12 +122%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $50 +$3 +6%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $6 +$6 +104%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $5 +$4 +72%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $31 $0 +1%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 14 $146 −$5 -4%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $5 +$11 +226%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 14 $4 +$4 +108%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 14 $4 +$4 +113%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $10 +$10 +104%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $4 +$3 +65%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $50 +$1 +1%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 13 $13 −$13 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 13 $6 +$6 +100%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Hannah Klugman vs Anastasia Zakharova Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 01 $126 −$4 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 31 $242 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 5¢ $1 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $40 1h
Call of Duty: Vancouver Surge vs Miami Heretics (BO5) - Call of Duty L BUY Miami Heretics 20¢ $1 5h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed BUY MODUS 5¢ $0 8h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 51¢ $6 8h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 32¢ $3 47h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 37¢ $3 2d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Under 2¢ $0 2d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Under 1¢ $0 2d
Scotland vs. Morocco: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 20¢ $2 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 31¢ $5 2d
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Under 48¢ $4 2d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 30¢ $4 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 29¢ $2 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 29¢ $7 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 29¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 29¢ $9 2d
Will Leinster win? BUY Yes 97¢ $2 2d
Will Racing 92 win? BUY No 73¢ $6 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $0 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $40 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 49¢ $40 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 88¢ $14 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 88¢ $13 2d
Rainbow Six Siege: DarkZero Esports vs Wildcard Gaming (BO1) - North A BUY Wildcard Gaming 30¢ $2 3d
Rainbow Six Siege: DarkZero Esports vs Wildcard Gaming (BO1) - North A BUY Wildcard Gaming 30¢ $2 3d
Rainbow Six Siege: DarkZero Esports vs Wildcard Gaming (BO1) - North A BUY Wildcard Gaming 30¢ $2 3d
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 84¢ $40 3d
Rainbow Six Siege: 100 Thieves vs Shopify Rebellion (BO1) - North Amer BUY 100 Thieves 51¢ $2 3d
Rainbow Six Siege: 100 Thieves vs Shopify Rebellion (BO1) - North Amer BUY 100 Thieves 51¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $90.21 · official $90.21 (match) · 599 history records