Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:07:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
AA 0xaaac…8069 crypto 46 markets active 2h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$533 (+10%) realized +$533 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate74%34W / 12L
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$120per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$339
7 days+$485
14 days+$475
30 days+$475
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$489
sports 1% −$3
other 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+3.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 +16.5% +5.4% 76% 69% -1.6%
≤30d 46 +14.1% +3.2% 74% 67% -1.7%
≤90d 46 +14.1% +3.2% 74% 67% -1.7%
all 46 +14.1% +3.2% 74% 67% -1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.2% 67% -1.7%
10% -6.7% 54% -11.1%
15% -15.7% 39% -19.7%
20% -23.9% 22% -27.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late +16% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$80 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.49 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$533
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses34 / 12
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)46 / 46
History coverage12d
Avg bet$120
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 46 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 20 $104 +$82 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 20 $135 +$53 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 20 $309 +$120 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 20 $103 +$42 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 20 $430 −$199 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 20 $71 −$69 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 20 $204 +$24 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 20 $112 +$47 +42%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 20 $153 +$13 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 20 $333 −$5 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 20 $410 +$101 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 20 $206 +$70 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 20 $52 +$34 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 20 $51 +$17 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 20 $308 +$80 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 20 $207 +$103 +50%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 19 $102 +$14 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 19 $105 +$104 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 19 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 19 $102 +$20 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 19 $102 +$20 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 19 $176 −$170 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 19 $45 +$17 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 19 $51 +$15 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 19 $155 −$2 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 19 $81 +$7 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 19 $175 +$55 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 19 $279 −$270 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 19 $72 −$70 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$7 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 19 $364 +$229 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$33 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $103 +$23 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $22 +$68 +304%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $135 +$24 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$4 +57%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6 +$2 +40%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +46%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 15 $15 +$1 +6%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $9 +$6 +67%
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $206 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $71 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $204 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $39 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $85 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $102 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $204 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $92 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $261 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $73 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $153 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $204 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $206 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $102 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $102 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $103 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $52 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $205 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $102 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $51 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $155 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $52 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $102 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $52 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 109 history records