Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:56:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
AA 0xaaaf…0ba7 world 33 markets active 0h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$78 (-2%) realized +$353 · open −$431
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate76%22W / 7L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$114per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$6
14 days+$29
30 days+$159
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 99% −$91
other 1% +$3
politics 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +3.4% -6.4% 100% 0% -6.4%
≤30d 9 +6.2% -3.9% 89% 33% -0.7%
≤90d 29 +5.9% -4.1% 76% 28% +0.2%
all 29 +5.9% -4.1% 76% 28% +0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.1% 28% +0.2%
10% -13.3% 10% -9.4%
15% -21.7% 3% -18.1%
20% -29.4% 3% -26.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
13.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$2 · ×6.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×25.39 per $1 lost it wins $25.39
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized+$353
Unrealized−$431
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses22 / 7
Open positions4
Markets (closed)29 / 33
History coverage78d
Avg bet$114
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? No 1¢ 1¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+8%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? No 1¢ 1¢ $14 $12 −$2 (-13%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? No 1¢ 1¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+15%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 89¢ 2¢ $443 $11 −$432 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $184 +$6 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 06 $322 +$22 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $848 +$108 +13%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 31 $4 $0 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $18 +$2 +12%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $33 +$1 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $139 +$17 +12%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 21 $18 +$1 +4%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 19 $56 +$2 +3%
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by June 30? May 17 $12 +$8 +66%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? May 17 $6 −$2 -45%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 14 $350 +$35 +10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 11 $29 −$5 -18%
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, Apr 28 $52 −$3 -6%
AWS service disrupted by April 30? Apr 28 $37 +$3 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 27 $180 +$27 +15%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? Apr 27 $67 +$2 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? Apr 27 $39 $0 +0%
Putin meets with Iranian officials by May 15? Apr 26 $32 −$3 -10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026? Apr 23 $149 +$10 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $395 +$99 +25%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 18 $67 +$12 +18%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? Apr 16 $129 +$10 +8%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? Apr 13 $3 +$1 +29%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 12 $37 $0 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Apr 10 $10 $0 +2%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 04 $20 +$1 +4%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Apr 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 01 $9 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $3 20m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $3 20m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $0 56m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $4 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $4 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $3 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $3 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $4 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $4 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $3 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $2 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $3 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $3 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $1 24h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $7 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $7 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $7 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $8 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $8 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $8 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $8 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $8 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $8 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $8 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $8 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $8 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $16 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $17 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $161 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.45 · official $48.50 (match) · 574 history records