Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:27:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaab0…439b other 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 175d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$41 (+7%) realized +$39 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%8W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$73now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$112
7 days−$67
14 days−$67
30 days−$77
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% −$45
other 48% −$43
world 2% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +13.4% +2.6% 54% 54% -23.9%
≤30d 14 +5.3% -4.7% 50% 50% -25.6%
≤90d 16 +3.1% -6.7% 50% 50% -28.6%
all 16 +3.1% -6.7% 50% 50% -28.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 50% -28.6%
10% -15.6% 38% -35.4%
15% -23.8% 38% -41.6%
20% -31.2% 38% -47.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 75% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$33 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

175d coverage
Net worth$73
Realized+$39
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses8 / 8
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions4
Markets (closed)16 / 20
History coverage175d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $38 $37 −$1 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $18 $21 +$3 (+16%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $43 −$4 -9%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $133 −$130 -98%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $15 −$15 -100%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $73 +$102 +141%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 23 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $43 +$22 +52%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $21 +$22 +104%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1 $0 +11%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $12 +$8 +61%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 20 $11 −$6 -54%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 +$3 +248%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +21%
Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be between Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $11 +$8 +76%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-01? Apr 08 $31 −$31 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $39 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 25¢ $39 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 26¢ $43 1h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $133 2h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 67¢ $63 7h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 10h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $15 10h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 10h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $66 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $43 3d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $21 4d
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 4d
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL Yes 9¢ $5 4d
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 61¢ $12 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 4d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 5d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 7d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $19 15d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? SELL Yes 100¢ $19 76d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? BUY Yes 56¢ $11 77d
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes 19¢ $11 77d
Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be between BUY Yes 10¢ $10 77d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-01? BUY Yes 64¢ $31 174d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72.89 · official $72.89 (match) · 56 history records