Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:59:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AA 0xaab2…edac other 131 markets active 2h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$28 (+0%) realized +$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate9%11W / 118L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$247per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$73now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$15
politics 26% −$10
sports 14% +$55
tech 5% −$2
crypto 4% −$1
economics 3% −$1
world 2% −$1
culture 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 86 -0.1% -9.6% 2% 0% -9.6%
all 129 +2.1% -7.7% 9% 7% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 7% -9.5%
10% -16.5% 5% -18.1%
15% -24.6% 3% -26.0%
20% -32.0% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$1 · ×13.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$73
Realized+$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses11 / 118
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)129 / 131
History coverage134d
Avg bet$247
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 129 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 23 $227 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $35 $0 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $21 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $425 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $613 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $425 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $183 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $200 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $438 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $186 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $234 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $185 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $869 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 04 $233 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $238 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $219 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $225 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $196 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $61 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $211 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $249 $0 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 01 $246 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $401 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $456 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 30 $235 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $194 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $432 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 29 $195 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 28 $235 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $231 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 21 $458 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $619 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 21 $252 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 20 $238 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 20 $703 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $377 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $210 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $216 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 17 $256 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 17 $213 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $253 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $420 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $244 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $233 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $199 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $894 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 14 $180 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in April? Apr 14 $194 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $203 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $213 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? BUY No 99¢ $34 2h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in June? BUY No 100¢ $39 2h
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $27 2h
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 2d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $35 4d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $35 8d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $21 8d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $21 9d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $27 9d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $27 18d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $225 26d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $225 29d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $201 29d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $201 31d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $182 31d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $183 40d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $200 40d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $200 41d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $206 47d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $206 47d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $176 47d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $176 47d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $186 47d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $186 48d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $234 48d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $234 48d
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $185 48d
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $185 49d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $220 49d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $220 50d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72.91 · official $72.91 (match) · 385 history records