Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:24:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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AA 0xaab4…fe7a crypto 567 markets active 2h ago coverage 64d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 64d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$346 (-3%) realized −$346 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%557W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day9.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$14
14 days+$35
30 days+$78
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% +$9
other 6% −$6
finance 3% +$7
tech 0% +$2
sports 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 99 +0.9% -8.7% 99% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 270 +1.0% -8.6% 99% 0% -8.1%
≤90d 566 +0.5% -9.1% 98% 0% -9.4%
all 566 +0.5% -9.1% 98% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 0% -9.4%
10% -17.8% 0% -18.1%
15% -25.7% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$24 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized−$346
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses557 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)566 / 567
History coverage64d ⚠
Avg bet$20
Trades / day9.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 566 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 15? Up 99¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $18 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET Jun 15 $32 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $18 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $12 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $50 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $12 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$1 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12PM ET Jun 14 $50 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $12 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $12 $0 +2%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $18 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $12 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $18 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $18 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 14 $12 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 14 $12 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 14 $12 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +3%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $18 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 14 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +2%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $18 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 13 $18 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 13 $12 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 13 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $18 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $18 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $18 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $18 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6AM ET Jun 13 $50 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $18 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $14 $0 +3%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $12 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +3%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 13 $18 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 13 $18 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 13 $12 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 13 $11 +$1 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $17 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $18 1h
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 99¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $18 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $32 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 13h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $18 15h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 16h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $12 17h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $18 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $12 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 28h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $12 29h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $12 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $18 29h
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $12 30h
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 30h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $18 30h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $18 31h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $18 31h
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 31h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $12 34h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $12 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 35h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $12 35h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $18 38h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $12 41h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.70 · official $49.98 (match) · 3500 history records