Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:31:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
AA 0xaab5…fdc0 sports 323 markets active 0h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$788 (+6%) realized +$817 · open −$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate46%148W / 174L
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day16.5pace
Fees−$288est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$43
7 days+$19
14 days−$133
30 days−$829
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$1,089
crypto 3% −$435
world 1% −$137
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-0.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +13.6% +2.8% 47% 47% -5.3%
≤30d 139 +4.0% -5.9% 44% 43% -27.1%
≤90d 322 +9.6% -0.9% 46% 44% -5.9%
all 322 +9.6% -0.9% 46% 44% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.9% 44% -5.9%
10% -10.4% 43% -14.9%
15% -19.0% 43% -23.2%
20% -27.0% 43% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$41 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized+$817
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses148 / 174
Est. fees paid−$288
Open positions1
Markets (closed)322 / 323
History coverage86d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day16.5
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 322 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox New York Yankees 29¢ 12¢ $52 $22 −$29 (-57%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 27 $15 −$15 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 27 $28 −$28 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 27 $11 +$9 +89%
Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 27 $16 +$14 +92%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Jun 26 $20 $0 -1%
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 26 $18 −$18 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 26 $18 −$18 -100%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 25 $17 +$26 +153%
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins Jun 25 $74 −$74 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 25 $24 +$26 +108%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 24 $25 −$25 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins Jun 24 $6 +$6 +100%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 24 $52 +$29 +56%
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 24 $18 +$48 +266%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 24 $41 +$69 +168%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 23 $16 −$16 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 18 $22 −$22 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 18 $24 −$24 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 18 $110 −$110 -100%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $30 +$22 +74%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $15 +$12 +82%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $18 +$8 +46%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $10 +$10 +100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $15 +$15 +96%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $20 +$20 +100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $31 −$18 -60%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $16 +$12 +77%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $32 +$28 +89%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $42 −$20 -48%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $73 −$21 -29%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $28 +$3 +10%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $14 +$16 +108%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $24 −$24 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 13 $24 −$24 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 13 $33 −$33 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 13 $81 −$81 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 11 $12 −$12 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $23 +$27 +118%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 11 $65 +$135 +207%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $10 +$9 +85%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $24 +$31 +129%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $16 −$16 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY New York Yankees 11¢ $0 13m
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY New York Yankees 11¢ $3 14m
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY New York Yankees 11¢ $0 14m
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY New York Yankees 11¢ $2 14m
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY New York Yankees 20¢ $1 38m
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY New York Yankees 20¢ $0 38m
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY New York Yankees 20¢ $1 38m
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY New York Yankees 20¢ $2 38m
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY New York Yankees 20¢ $1 38m
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY New York Yankees 20¢ $5 38m
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY New York Yankees 36¢ $11 52m
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY New York Yankees 51¢ $26 1h
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Washington Nationals 45¢ $14 19h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Atlanta Braves 52¢ $11 19h
Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY Miami Marlins 51¢ $16 19h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY New York Yankees 48¢ $15 19h
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Washington Nationals 45¢ $14 19h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 30¢ $9 41h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY New York Yankees 36¢ $3 41h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY New York Yankees 36¢ $15 41h
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 30¢ $15 42h
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 35¢ $18 42h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals SELL Washington Nationals 84¢ $20 43h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 38¢ $11 43h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants SELL San Francisco Giants 94¢ $9 44h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants SELL San Francisco Giants 85¢ $34 44h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 34¢ $15 45h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 34¢ $0 45h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 34¢ $1 45h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 34¢ $1 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.50 · official $26.10 · 1736 history records