Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:54:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
AA 0xaab6…b6a2 world 61 markets active 4d ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$93 · open −$90
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate41%22W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$18
14 days+$41
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% +$44
other 27% −$104
sports 22% +$26
politics 7% −$23
finance 3% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -19.8% -27.4% 33% 22% -23.0%
≤30d 27 +10.8% +0.2% 48% 41% -10.9%
≤90d 54 +22.2% +10.6% 41% 37% -2.3%
all 54 +22.2% +10.6% 41% 37% -2.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.6% 37% -2.3%
10% -0.0% 31% -11.6%
15% -9.7% 31% -20.1%
20% -18.5% 31% -28.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +34% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$6 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized+$93
Unrealized−$90
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses22 / 32
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions7
Markets (closed)54 / 61
History coverage54d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Yes $103 $22 −$81 (-78%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? Yes $6 $2 −$4 (-66%)
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026? Yes 19¢ 11¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-41%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 21¢ 10¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-55%)
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-32%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? Yes $3 $0 −$3 (-87%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump attend the G7 Summit? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 13 $36 −$10 -28%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 13 $16 −$3 -18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +11%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 13 $7 −$3 -42%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $5 $0 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $25 +$2 +9%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 11 $10 +$9 +90%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $15 +$14 +93%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $7 +$8 +109%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $10 +$37 +371%
Israeli forces enter Beirut by June 30? Jun 01 $15 −$6 -40%
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals May 31 $10 −$10 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $13 +$17 +128%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 30 $10 +$1 +6%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 29 $5 −$5 -98%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $9 +$3 +32%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) May 29 $10 +$13 +123%
Hasan Piker arrested by June 30? May 28 $7 −$4 -56%
US strike on Colombia by December 31? May 27 $3 −$1 -25%
Spread: Thunder (-2.5) May 27 $10 +$8 +79%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 26 $93 −$64 -69%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 25 $15 +$10 +67%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? May 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? May 23 $24 +$4 +16%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? May 22 $17 −$11 -63%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 12 $21 −$14 -65%
Will Trump praise Allah again by May 31? May 12 $5 −$1 -25%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 11 $7 −$7 -97%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 11 $5 +$4 +80%
Golden Knights vs. Ducks May 11 $5 +$5 +90%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 11 $10 −$4 -35%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 10 $4 +$1 +14%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $15 −$15 -99%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? May 09 $5 +$45 +899%
Golden Knights vs. Ducks May 09 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 09 $5 −$1 -23%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? May 03 $10 −$5 -45%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 29 $5 +$30 +605%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 29 $5 +$7 +149%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? Apr 28 $5 +$3 +70%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 25 $5 −$1 -22%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Apr 25 $5 +$3 +62%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? Apr 25 $5 −$1 -22%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $1 $0 -18%
Will Arvell Reese be the third pick in the 2026 NFL draft? Apr 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump attend the G7 Summit? BUY No $5 3d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? SELL Yes $5 3d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? BUY Yes $6 3d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? BUY Yes $10 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $5 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $5 3d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 3d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $4 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 39¢ $11 3d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes $4 3d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes $6 5d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? SELL Yes $6 5d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? BUY Yes $5 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 22¢ $5 5d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? BUY Yes $8 5d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes $1 5d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 59¢ $5 5d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? BUY Yes $13 5d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes SELL Hurricanes 58¢ $19 5d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? BUY Yes $18 5d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 60¢ $20 5d
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) BUY Spurs 52¢ $10 6d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights SELL Hurricanes 100¢ $29 7d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 51¢ $15 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $7 8d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? BUY Yes 13¢ $30 10d
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 95¢ $36 10d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 10d
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 89¢ $11 10d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? BUY Yes $1 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.75 · official $28.75 (match) · 180 history records