Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:07:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaab6…607e sports 575 markets active 2h ago coverage 39d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 39d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (67 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,996 (-4%) realized −$1,732 · open −$264
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate58%322W / 238L
Drawdown91%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day67.3pace
Fees−$433est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$6,319now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 39d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% +$1,185
other 25% +$306
economics 10% −$29
crypto 2% +$1
world 1% −$29
culture 1% +$43
politics 1% −$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (67 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +19.1% +7.8% 67% 67% +28.7%
≤30d 96 +2.7% -7.1% 60% 43% +4.3%
≤90d 560 +5.1% -4.9% 58% 41% -6.1%
all 560 +5.1% -4.9% 58% 41% -6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover67.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.9% 41% -6.1%
10% ← realistic here -14.0% 39% -15.1%
15% -22.3% 30% -23.3%
20% -29.9% 22% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$43 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$6,319
Realized−$1,732
Unrealized−$264
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses322 / 238
Est. fees paid−$433
Open positions15
Markets (closed)560 / 575
History coverage39d ⚠
Avg bet$89
Trades / day67.3
Drawdown91%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 560 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $3,195 $3,181 −$14 (-0%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 81¢ 81¢ $1,195 $1,192 −$2 (-0%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 27¢ 25¢ $404 $377 −$27 (-7%)
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 35¢ 37¢ $348 $370 +$22 (+6%)
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? Yes 51¢ 53¢ $315 $330 +$15 (+5%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 34¢ 26¢ $326 $252 −$74 (-23%)
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? No 25¢ 24¢ $145 $134 −$11 (-8%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $118 $117 −$1 (-1%)
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 12¢ 16¢ $67 $88 +$21 (+32%)
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? No 35¢ 30¢ $80 $68 −$13 (-16%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 36¢ 16¢ $146 $65 −$80 (-55%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? Yes 29¢ 16¢ $116 $62 −$54 (-47%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $49 $44 −$6 (-12%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 Over 44¢ 48¢ $33 $36 +$3 (+10%)
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $45 $2 −$42 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $529 +$161 +30%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $140 $0 +0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $11 +$3 +28%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $1,654 +$860 +52%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 19 $74 −$74 -100%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $108 +$112 +104%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $61 +$45 +74%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $39 +$61 +158%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $1,009 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $200 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $330 +$25 +8%
Roland Garros ATP: Thanasi Kokkinakis vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 29 $14 −$14 -100%
Vicenza: Stefano Travaglia vs Henri Squire May 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) May 29 $32 −$32 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Marco Trungelliti May 29 $11 −$11 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Caty McNally vs Belinda Bencic May 29 $12 −$12 -100%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 2.5 May 29 $22 −$22 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Sharks (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 29 $33 −$33 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Jelena Ostapenko vs Magda Linette May 29 $38 −$38 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 May 29 $74 −$24 -32%
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 May 29 $26 −$26 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins May 29 $67 −$17 -25%
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs R2 Esports Club (BO3) - CCT South Amer May 29 $59 −$10 -16%
Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website? May 29 $34 −$34 -100%
Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5) May 29 $70 −$59 -84%
Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 11.5 May 29 $19 −$19 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Eva Lys vs Sorana Cirstea May 29 $46 $0 -0%
LoL: New Meta vs DetonatioN FocusMe Academy (BO3) - LJL Regular Season May 29 $25 $0 -1%
Valorant: GIANTX GC vs Twisted Minds Orchid (BO3) - VCT Game Changers May 29 $44 −$3 -8%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $13 −$13 -100%
LoL: BIG vs G2 NORD (BO5) - Prime League 1st Division Playoffs May 29 $16 −$16 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Nuno Borges vs Miomir Kecmanovic May 29 $15 −$15 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $34 −$9 -26%
Kosice: Lukas Pokorny vs Martin Krumich May 29 $6 −$6 -100%
Anadolu Efes vs. Turk Telekom May 29 $17 −$17 -100%
Spread: Zamalek SC (-1.5) May 29 $21 −$21 -100%
Hamburg European Open: Luciano Darderi vs Yannick Hanfmann May 29 $35 −$35 -100%
Geneva Open: Edas Butvilas vs Alexander Bublik May 29 $26 −$26 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 29 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Al Shabab Saudi Club win on 2026-05-21? May 29 $64 −$64 -100%
Will Santos FC win on 2026-05-20? May 29 $54 −$54 -100%
Cusco FC vs. Independiente Medellín: O/U 3.5 May 29 $76 −$76 -100%
World Championships: USA vs. Germany May 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Will IFK Goteborg win on 2026-05-18? May 29 $82 −$61 -75%
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw? May 28 $36 +$14 +40%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-27? May 28 $38 +$12 +31%
Will Toulouse FC win on 2026-05-17? May 28 $47 +$28 +59%
FC Nantes vs. Toulouse FC: O/U 3.5 May 27 $52 +$23 +45%
FC Nantes vs. Toulouse FC: O/U 2.5 May 27 $70 +$80 +115%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $37 +$13 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $50 1h
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $18 1h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 85¢ $690 2h
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? SELL No 30¢ $1 2h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals SELL St. Louis Cardinals 35¢ $26 2h
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 2h
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? BUY Yes 54¢ $3 2h
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 2h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $140 2h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $14 3h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $15 3h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $36 3h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $487 5h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $221 5h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $163 5h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $9 6h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $5 6h
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 6h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $579 6h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $171 6h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $330 7h
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? BUY Yes 50¢ $132 7h
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? BUY Yes 51¢ $153 7h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 27¢ $139 7h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $64 7h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $97 7h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $1,515 7h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $385 7h
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? BUY Yes 50¢ $20 8h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $403 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,319.30 · official $6,369.30 (match) · 3500 history records