Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:46:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaab8…745f other 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$68 (-14%) realized −$112 · open +$44
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -49% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -56% what you keep after slip
Net edge-56%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate26%5W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$185now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$57
7 days+$0
14 days−$75
30 days−$75
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% +$20
sports 28% −$52
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-53.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -31.1% -37.7% 33% 33% -9.4%
≤30d 19 -49.0% -53.8% 26% 26% -28.9%
≤90d 19 -49.0% -53.8% 26% 26% -28.9%
all 19 -49.0% -53.8% 26% 26% -28.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -53.8% 26% -28.9%
10% -58.2% 26% -35.7%
15% -62.3% 26% -41.9%
20% -66.0% 21% -47.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 81% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -49% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -45% → late -52% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$14 · ×1.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$185
Realized−$112
Unrealized+$44
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses5 / 14
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)19 / 22
History coverage8d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 60¢ 81¢ $101 $138 +$36 (+36%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 40¢ $10 $18 +$8 (+80%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $20 +$12 +60%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $10 −$9 -90%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 +$21 +105%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 −$5 -24%
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $10 −$8 -82%
Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $10 −$9 -91%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $81 +$73 +90%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +60%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +44%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $103 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $31 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $20 29h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $20 30h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $20 30h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY No 41¢ $20 30h
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 33h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $20 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $42 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $20 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 43¢ $15 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $20 2d
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 4d
Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $81 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 7d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 7d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 7d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 7d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 7d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 7d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 7d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 7d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 8d
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 8d
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 8d
Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 8d
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $185.21 · official $185.23 (match) · 33 history records